645
FXUS63 KDVN 060932
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
432 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW-END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, AS AN MCV PASSES THROUGH. IF STORMS DEVELOP, THERE
WILL BE A LOW-END SEVERE RISK AS WELL, WITH A MARGINAL (LEVEL
1/5) RISK.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME REACHING INTO THE LOW 90S.
- WE WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK,
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASING THIS WEEKEND AND
BEYOND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
THIS MORNING, WE SEE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH PARTS OF
NORTHWEST IA. THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO TRACK SSE AND POTENTIALLY
GRAZE PART OF OUR AREA THIS LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW, BUT THIS COMPLEX WILL ALSO
PRODUCE AN MCV, WHICH WILL TRACK NEAR THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE BULK OF THE PARENT SHORTWAVE'S ENERGY PASSES THROUGH.
THIS POSES AN INTERESTING FORECAST CHALLENGE, AS THOSE MAY
PROVIDE NECESSARY FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF IT, WE DO HAVE
SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE, WITH WEAK SHEAR. SO, THAT WOULD FAVOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF THE FORCING IS
STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE CAP IN PLACE. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE SITUATION THOUGH, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THUS, WE
WILL MESSAGE THE LOW-END CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
GENERALLY A <30% CHANCE. THE SPC HAS OUTLOOKED AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY, WITH MAIN THREAT BEING SEVERE WINDS.
ASIDE FROM THE STORM POTENTIAL, TODAY IS ANOTHER DAY IN WHICH WE
SEE THE SUBTLE WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
MID 80S WILL BE SEEN, WITH INCREASING MOISTURE MAKING IT FEEL A
LITTLE MUGGY FOR SOME, ESPECIALLY AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. IN EITHER CASE, WE CAN EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUN TODAY AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.
TONIGHT, THE WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA, JUST IN TIME FOR
THE NEXT WAVE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WE ARE STILL SITUATED
EAST OF THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT
OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ALTHOUGH, OUR FAR WEST/NORTHWEST WILL
HAVE A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD LARGELY BE A MILD NIGHT,
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
ACTIVE PATTERN STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK, AS THE THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS WEST OF THE AREA, LEAVING US IN
WEAK UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL GUIDE
WEAK SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA. LLVL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL, WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE FAVORED CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WEST OF US, BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT WE CAN
BE LEFT WITH DECAYING CONVECTION.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS WELL, WITH UPPER 80S AND 90S RETURNING TO
THE AREA. CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE 90S,
BUT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SEEM TO BE FAVORED FOR
NOW. ALTHOUGH, HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS IN THE UPPER 80S, WITH HIGHER
HUMIDITY, INCREASING HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 95-100, ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE THERE ARE NONZERO CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. AREAS WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. FROM
THERE, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BRINGING A BREAK FROM THE HEAT,
ALONG WITH OUR BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THUS, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY AS MORE
GUIDANCE COMES IN.
WHILE THIS IS FARTHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, LONG TERM GUIDANCE AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES FAVOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT
WEEK, INTRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME, IT
DOESN'T SEEM TO BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF DRY TIME BETWEEN PASSING SYSTEMS. ALTHOUGH, THIS
QUIET WEATHER THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING LOOKS TO BE COMING TO A
CLOSE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE SOME
ARE REPORTING LINGERING SMOKE, VISIBILITIES REMAIN AROUND 6 SM
THROUGHOUT. THUS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RESTRICTIONS FROM THAT
BEYOND 12Z. OTHERWISE, LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
LOW-END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 18Z TODAY, BUT HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE (<30%
CHANCE).
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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