818
FXUS63 KDVN 070505
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1205 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN MCV IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS. ISOLATE DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOW
90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100.
- THERE ARE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DISSIPATED OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL IOWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE STAYED
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FORECAST AND RANGE FROM 78 DEGREES AT
VINTON TO 85 DEGREES AT BURLINGTON. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE OR MCV WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. CAMS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH ON STRENGTH OF ANY
STORMS AND LOCATION OF THEIR DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ARE NOT VERY STEEP AS THIS
WAVE ARRIVES AND THINK THAT THIS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. CAMS DO SHOW WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPING BUT MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHILE EARLIER TODAY IT WAS SOUTH OF I-80
AND MORE INTENSE. SO IN GENERAL, HAVE KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THERE WILL BE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS TONIGHT
AND WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. THERE IS LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
WEST OF A MANCHESTER TO MOLINE TO KEOKUK LINE.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE OR POSSIBLE MCV FROM TONIGHTS FORECAST STORMS
IN THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS THIS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR TO THE AROUND 90 SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING
SIMILAR TO TODAY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
THERE IS A MODIFIED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A VERY SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES
FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO MANITOBA. THIS WILL BRING HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS RESULTS IN HEAT INDICES
RETURNING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 ON BOTH DAYS. IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, THERE WILL BE A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF A LINE FROM VINTON TO
MUSCATINE TO FORT MADISON. ANY LINGERING STORMS OR CLOUD COVER
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS BOTH DAYS AND THUS IMPACT THE HEAT INDICES EACH DAY.
AS THIS 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 00 UTC ON WEDNESDAY, IT IS
FORECAST TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY. AFTER SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BACK INTO THE
60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE LOW-END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. RATHER, WE SHOULD REMAIN
DRY UNTIL AT LEAST 12Z, WHEN WE START TO SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. GRANTED, CHANCES REMAIN <30%, LARGELY BECAUSE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS LOW. THUS, OPTED TO LEAVE
OUT OF THIS RENDITION OF TAFS UNTIL WE GAIN BETTER CONFIDENCE.
OTHERWISE, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE
DAY BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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