146
FXUS63 KDVN 071803
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
103 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE MCV TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH MEANS
THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS QUIET. REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IS
STILL POSSIBLE LATER BUT LOOKING LESS LIKELY.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH SOME REACHING INTO THE LOW 90S.
- BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
BETWEEN 3-4AM, WE SAW A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RAPIDLY DEVELOP JUST WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LINE OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO HOURS,
WITH STORM MOTION LARGELY EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 30-40 MPH.
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE WILL COME CLOSE TO IOWA CITY IN
ABOUT TWO HOURS, IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER, WITH ALL AREAS SOUTH OF
THERE IN LINE FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE LONGEVITY OF THESE STORMS BEYOND TWO HOURS, ALONG WITH THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. MAIN HAZARDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE WINDS UPWARDS TO 60 MPH AND ISOLATED HAIL UP TO
QUARTER-SIZED. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS WELL.
THE LONGEVITY OF THESE STORMS AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER MAY
IMPACT THE FORECAST TODAY QUITE A BIT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AND
UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACCORDINGLY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE: LOW-MEDIUM
CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR US TODAY, AS WE HAVE A WEAK WAVE/MCV SLOWLY
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL PROVIDE
THE NECESSARY FORCING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LATER
TODAY, WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT KEEPING STORM MOTION SLOW. LOOKING AT
MODEL SOUNDINGS, STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 10-20 MPH.
WITH THIS WAVE PASSING THROUGH, WE WILL SEE QUITE THE PULL IN
MOISTURE, WITH PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.75-2.00" RANGE. THIS
WOULD FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WITH HEAVY
RAIN EXPECTED WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS, COUPLED WITH A SLOW
STORM MOTION, THERE WILL BE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THIS
THREAT IS LARGELY FOCUSED IN NORTHWEST IL, ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY MAY
SEE REPEATING THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS. ALTHOUGH, CONFIDENCE IN
SPATIAL COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAINS LOW.
WE ALSO HAVE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.
OVERALL, THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS TO BE ISOLATED. THE MAIN THING
GOING FOR THESE STORMS WOULD BE THE INSTABILITY. OVERALL, DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. WITH
THAT SAID, THE MCV HAS A TENDENCY TO LOCALLY ENHANCE SHEAR.
THUS, THIS WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT.
SEVERE WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THE STRONGER STORMS,
WITH HAIL BEING SECONDARY.
OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY IN WHICH THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES. WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MID-UPPER 80S, WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 70S. THUS, A WARM AND MUGGY DAY IS AHEAD OF
US. TONIGHT, WITH MOISTURE LARGELY REMAINING IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP OFF TOO MUCH, KEEPING US IN THE LOW-MID 70S. WE CAN
CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT THIS
LARGELY LOOKS TO BE ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SEVERE
THREAT TONIGHT SHOULD LARGELY DROP OFF AS WELL, BUT THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
FRIDAY, WEAK/BRIEF ZONAL FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA AND WE ARE
EXPECTING IT TO REMAIN QUIET, WEATHER-WISE THROUGH THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH, THIS IS GEARED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE STRETCH, AS
MODEST LLVL SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING WAVE WEST
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE INTO THE
90S FOR MANY, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. THUS, DANGEROUS HEAT
INDICES MAY RESULT. CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES HEAT INDICES AROUND
105 FOR SOME. WHILE NO HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED RIGHT NOW, WE
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR, AS SOME MAY NEED HEADLINES IF WE
CONTINUE AS FORECAST.
THERMAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KICKING IN
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS FLOW WOULD FAVOR THE
CONTINUATION OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER. WHILE WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING THE 90S TO CONTINUE BEYOND FRIDAY/SATURDAY, MID 80S
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH DEWPOINTS LARGELY
REMAINING AROUND 70. THUS, THE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN, MAKING IT
FEEL RATHER UNPLEASANT ON THE WARMER DAYS. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TAKING SHAPE, ANY SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WILL TRACK RIGHT THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL. THE CONTINUOUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IS WHAT SHOULD KEEP US IN THE 80S, BUT MAY LEAD TO FURTHER
TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGES.
SATURDAY, WE WILL SEE STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THAT WAVE, WE WILL SEE A
WEAK WAVES LEADING THE PARENT WAVE, WHICH WILL PROMOTE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. OVERALL, THIS
WILL OCCUR WHEN WE HAVE RELATIVELY LOW STEERING FLOW OVER THE
AREA, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SLOWER STORM MOTION. THUS, SLOW
MOVING STORMS MAY BE SEEN ON SATURDAY, WHICH CAN LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME. PWATS WILL APPROACH 1.75-2.00" THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY, FURTHER FAVORING HEAVY RAINFALL
WHERE THE STORMS DEVELOP. THUS, THIS WOULD RESULT IN A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE COVERAGE, AS
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD WASHOUT. THUS, A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS
OUTLOOKED FOR THE AREA. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EITHER, WITH CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL. SPC HAS ALSO OUTLOOKED THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/5) FOR SATURDAY. THIS SEEMS TO LARGELY BE FOCUSED WITH
THE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER WAVE SATURDAY
NIGHT. WE WILL ALSO SEE BETTER MOISTURE MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, WITH PWATS BETWEEN 2.00-2.25". THIS IS
UNSEASONABLY HIGH AND WOULD FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITH ANY
STORM. THUS, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HAZARDS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
UPDATE ACCORDINGLY AS MORE GUIDANCE COMES IN.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA NEAR-DAILY. THUS, WE ARE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAILY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME, IT DOESN'T SEEM TO BE A COMPLETE
WASHOUT THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. RATHER, THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
DRY TIME BETWEEN PASSING SYSTEMS. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE, WE
WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TOO
SOON TO DETERMINE ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE PASSING WAVES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEARING HIGH
CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. LOW END
CHANCE (20%>) OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AT CID/DBQ. LEFT OUT OF
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AND
BECOME SOLIDLY SE LATER TODAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
UPDATE...GUNKEL
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...GIBBS
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