644  
FXUS63 KDVN 102027  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
327 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.  
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH STORMS NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
- FLASH FLOODING IS THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL  
DAYS WITH A 25% CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WEST OF THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND A 25-50% CHANCE EAST OF THE RIVER. THE  
STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES  
BETWEEN 1-3" PER HOUR AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.  
 
- WIDESPREAD 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY  
WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING HIGHER AMOUNTS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
 
A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM EAST OF KANSAS CITY, MO TO  
NEAR CENTERVILLE, IA TO NEAR DECORAH TO NEAR RED WING, MN. A  
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNING'S  
STORMS IN NEBRASKA, KANSAS, AND MISSOURI WAS CENTERED NEAR DES  
MOINES. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT OVER EASTERN  
IOWA, SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN, AND NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING  
WHILE THE MCV ADVANCES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IOWA.  
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR  
THE MCV IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. BOTH THE NAM  
AND RAP FEATURE STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE EAST OF  
THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET  
DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS  
WILL FURTHER AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT  
VECTORS SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE  
GREATEST RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
STRONG DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS  
AND MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE. THE STORM PREDICTION  
CENTER HAS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUTLINED IN A  
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (1 OUT OF 5 RISK).  
 
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY  
NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL REPLENISH THE  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME. SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE MID-  
AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL  
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
 
BY TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD AND TAKE THE  
RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP DRIER AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER  
IN LESS HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. BY FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM  
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ARE FORECAST  
BY SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
 
WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE S TO SSW THIS AFTERNOON AS MORNING  
STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT. A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ARE  
POSSIBLE AT SOUTHEASTERN SITES. MODELS SUGGEST A LINE OR TWO OF  
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, MORE LIKELY IN THE  
SOUTHEAST NEAR KMLI/KBRL. HEAVY RAIN FROM TODAY MAY CONTRIBUTE  
TO FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT, BUT FOG WILL BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF  
BROADER LOW CLOUD COVERAGE. RAIN IS UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH  
TOMORROW MORNING AND WINDS REMAIN 5 KTS OR LESS, LEAVING MVFR  
CIGS THE PRIMARY CONCERN MID TO LATE MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE  
SOUTHEAST.  
 
 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
IA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ040>042-052>054-  
064>068-077-078-087>089-098-099.  
IL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ001-002-007-009-  
015-016-024>026-034.  
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ009-010.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...PREVIOUS FCTER  
LONG TERM...PREVIOUS FCTER  
AVIATION...NWS  
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