849
FXUS63 KDVN 102327
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
627 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH STORMS NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
- FLASH FLOODING IS THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH A 25% CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND A 25-50% CHANCE EAST OF THE RIVER. THE
STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1-3" PER HOUR AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
- WIDESPREAD 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM EAST OF KANSAS CITY, MO TO
NEAR CENTERVILLE, IA TO NEAR DECORAH TO NEAR RED WING, MN. A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNING'S
STORMS IN NEBRASKA, KANSAS, AND MISSOURI WAS CENTERED NEAR DES
MOINES. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT OVER EASTERN
IOWA, SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN, AND NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING
WHILE THE MCV ADVANCES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IOWA.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR
THE MCV IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. BOTH THE NAM
AND RAP FEATURE STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE EAST OF
THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS
WILL FURTHER AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
GREATEST RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
AND MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUTLINED IN A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (1 OUT OF 5 RISK).
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL REPLENISH THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME. SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE MID-
AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
BY TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD AND TAKE THE
RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP DRIER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER
IN LESS HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ARE FORECAST
BY SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 546 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
A DISTURBANCE IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AT
TAF ISSUANCE TIME THIS EVENING. A SCATTERED LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS DEVELOPED AND IS FORECAST TO BE THROUGH KCID AND
KDBQ BY 01 UTC AND THEN THROUGH KMLI AND KBRL BY 02 UTC THIS
EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. AFTER THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH,
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5 KFT AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER 06 UTC, ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AVIATION
FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 12 UTC WHEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION.
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ABOVE MVFR AFTER 15 UTC ON MONDAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ040>042-052>054-
064>068-077-078-087>089-098-099.
IL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ001-002-007-009-
015-016-024>026-034.
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...PREVIOUS FCTER
LONG TERM...PREVIOUS FCTER
AVIATION...COUSINS
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