207
FXUS63 KDVN 110607
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
107 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ON SATURATED GROUND THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1-2" PER HOUR AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS.
- A BREAK FROM THE RAINY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS A SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR MASS WORKS INTO THE
REGION.
- THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS BY FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND (20-40%).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM EAST OF KANSAS CITY, MO TO
NEAR CENTERVILLE, IA TO NEAR DECORAH TO NEAR RED WING, MN. A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNING'S
STORMS IN NEBRASKA, KANSAS, AND MISSOURI WAS CENTERED NEAR DES
MOINES. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT OVER EASTERN
IOWA, SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN, AND NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING
WHILE THE MCV ADVANCES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IOWA.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR
THE MCV IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. BOTH THE NAM
AND RAP FEATURE STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE EAST OF
THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS
WILL FURTHER AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
GREATEST RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
AND MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUTLINED IN A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (1 OUT OF 5 RISK).
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL REPLENISH THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME. SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE MID-
AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
BY TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD AND TAKE THE
RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP DRIER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER
IN LESS HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ARE FORECAST
BY SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
HUMID CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS, AND POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES MAY
LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
(MVFR/IFR), FAVORED AT DBQ AND CID. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE OR WIDESPREAD FOG WITH LATEST HI-RES
MODELS INDICATING A LOWER COVERAGE SCENARIO. CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE THROUGH MID MONDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO VFR.
OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT; HOWEVER, DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS YET WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND TIMING.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NWS
LONG TERM...NWS
AVIATION...UTTECH
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