727
FXUS63 KDVN 112342
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
642 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE
SEVERE THREAT IS LOW, THERE REMAINS A NONZERO THREAT FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM.
- "COLD" FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY, LEAVING US WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND MORE PLEASANT DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.
- WE WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AFTER TUESDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT, AS AN MCV TRACKS NEARBY.
THIS MCV IS A RESULT OF THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING MCS THAT DECAYED
OVER PORTIONS OF KS/MO. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SET UP OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST, THE MCV WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST MO
THROUGH CENTRAL IA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS, WE WILL SEE A
WEAK BAND OF FORCING COMING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS MORNING, WE
SAW SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THIS, BUT THAT ACTIVITY HAS
DIED OFF. WHILE GUIDANCE ISN'T PICKING UP ON THE SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL, I CANNOT SAY THAT WE WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. RATHER, WITH THIS COMING THROUGH DURING PEAK
HEATING, I THINK WE WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN,
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES
THIS BAND OF FORCING COMING THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON AND BEING
SITUATED NEAR INTERSTATE 80 AT THAT TIME. THUS, I WOULD SAY THAT
THERE WILL BE A 15-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BETWEEN 3-6PM.
CONFIDENCE ON THIS WILL BE LOW, LARGELY BECAUSE THERE ARE SOME
FACTORS THAT MAY LIMIT COVERAGE/INITIATION OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON, SUCH AS RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. THUS, WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY
STORMS CHANCES. ASIDE FROM THE LOW-END STORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON, WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 80S ONCE
AGAIN, WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 70S THROUGHOUT. THUS,
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS BEING SEEN.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INFLUENCE FROM THE
PASSING MCV. WITH THAT, WE WILL STILL HAVE A BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER
OUR AREA, ROUGHLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS, ALONG WITH
BOUTS OF ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE, WILL INCREASE SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
BE AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AND BEYOND, AS THAT WILL BE WHEN THE
BEST FORCING MOVES IN. WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE REMAINING WEST OF THE
AREA, WE WILL SEE ANOTHER LLJ SET UP OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS WELL.
THUS, THIS WILL FURTHER SUPPLY MOISTURE AND LLVL FORCING, FAVORING A
CONTINUATION OF THE STORM THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LARGELY BE FOCUSED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY, BUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH, THOSE LOCATED ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR REPEATING ROUNDS OF STORMS TONIGHT. NOT ONLY WILL
PWATS AROUND 1.75-2.00"+ FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORM, BUT
AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL SEE A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT. SOME CAMS ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF RAIN IN
THE HARDEST HIT AREAS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THESE
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT, SLOWLY PUSHING
EAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY TIME
TONIGHT, BUT WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN THAT, WITH SUCH FORCING AND
MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE AREA. THUS, OPTED TO LARGELY HOLD 30-60%
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, I WOULDN'T DISCOUNT THE LOW-END CHANCE FOR A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM. SOME CAMS ARE HIGHLIGHTING A COMPLEX COMING THROUGH
THAT CAN PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
SEVERE. AGAIN, THIS SEEMS TO BE LARGELY FOCUSED AT LOCATIONS ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, IT WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY, GLOOMY, AND MILD THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
70.
TOMORROW, WE WILL FINALLY START TO SEE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TREK EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY HOURS OF THE
AFTERNOON, WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY AS
THE WAVE AND WEAK COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
LARGELY BE FOCUSED IN AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON, MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN OUR FAR EAST,
IF NOT ALREADY OUT OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
80S THROUGHOUT, WITH HUMIDITY REMAINING HIGHER UNTIL THE
EVENING/NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
TUESDAY NIGHT, WE WILL FINALLY SEE THE SHORTWAVE MOVE EAST OF OUR
AREA, WITH UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW KICKING IN. WEDNESDAY, WE WILL
SEE THIS NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATE ALOFT AND LLVLS, AS A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL IOWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN
AT THIS POINT, WITH A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS AND DRY ADVECTION MOVING
IN. THUS, WE WILL FINALLY SEE MORE PLEASANT HUMIDITY VALUES WORK IN
MIDWEEK AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL BE THE MAIN CHANGE IN AIRMASS THAT WE SEE, AS WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THURSDAY.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND, WE SEE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF EAST
OF THE AREA, WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW KICKING IN FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. WITH THAT, WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS DRY
AND HOT, WITH PASSING CLOUDS.
THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND, WE SEE LLVL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AGAIN, WITH WARM ADVECTION ALLOWING FOR HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR
TO WORK IN, AS WELL AS INCREASE THE TEMPERATURES. UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HUMID CONDITIONS, MAKING
IT FEEL A LITTLE UNPLEASANT AGAIN. CURRENT FORECAST HINTS AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 FOR SOME. WHILE WE WILL SEE
MOISTURE INCREASE THROUGH THE AREA, THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA, KEEPING THE BEST
MOISTURE AND FORCING WEST OF THE AREA. THUS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN LOW (<30%) FOR NOW, WITH SPATIAL COVERAGE LIMITED AT THIS
TIME. STORM TRACK CURRENTLY SEEMS TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA,
BUT WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE CURRENT POPS ARE LARGELY
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS PATTERN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTERLY THOUGH, INTRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS
(30-40% CHANCE) SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THUS, THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO START THE PERIOD. A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT PLUS A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE 3 TO 9
UTC WINDOW AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNRISE. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...COUSINS
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