952  
FXUS63 KDVN 120811  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
311 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- "COLD" FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST  
LATE TODAY, LEAVING US WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER INFLUX  
OF DEWPOINTS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN  
SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.  
 
- AFTER TODAY, WE WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF  
THE WEEK, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING NOT UNTIL THE  
WEEKEND AND BEYOND.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025  
 
TODAY...AFTER THE ONGOING MCS AND IT'S TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN  
FIELDS EXIT OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, TODAY MAY BE MAINLY DRY OR  
LOW COVERAGE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A STORM POPPING UP DIURNALLY ALONG  
LINGERING QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN PLACE. BUT THERE WILL BE  
PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS TO ERODE TODAY AND MAY LIMIT  
INSTABILITY-DIURNAL HEATING SOME TO SUPPORT MORE OF SCTRD COVERAGE  
AS THE MAIN UPSTREAM UPPER TROF AXIS WILL STILL BE OFF TO THE WEST.  
THUS STILL SOME LIFT GOING UNTIL THE AXIS SWIPES OFF TO THE EAST BY  
MID TO LATE EVENING. THUS WILL TRIM BACK POPS FOR THE EXPECTED LOW  
COVERAGE. THE ERODING DEBRIS/CLOUDS AND WEAK LLVL FLOW SHOULD KEEP  
THE HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80 DEGREE RANGE, AND SFC  
DPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S TO LAST UNTIL THE MAIN UPSTREAM(REAL COOL  
FRONT) STARTS TO SWEEP IN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS STARTS  
TO MIGRATE OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL. STRONGER STORM REFORMATION  
SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA OF  
CONCERN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
TONIGHT...AS TEASED ABOVE, THIS IS THE PERIOD THE REAL COOL FRONT  
WILL SLIP THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST, MAINLY DURING THE  
EVENING AND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY,  
THE LATEST CAMS SUGGEST THE FRONT TO HAVE A HARD TIME KICKING UP AND  
ASSOCIATED F-GEN INDUCE SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG IT, MAYBE A FEW  
ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WON'T LOOK TO LAST TOO LONG INTO THE MID TO  
LATE EVENING HOURS. AGAIN ONLY LOW POPS WARRANTED FOR THIS FROPA  
PROCESS THIS EVENING. POST-FRONTAL LOW TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER  
50S IN THE FAR NORTHWEST, TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WILL BANK  
ON ENOUGH POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY SFC FLOW TO MAINTAIN TO  
LIMIT ANY FOG CHANCES LATE TONIGHT, EXCEPT MAYBE IN SOME RIVER  
VALLEYS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025  
 
WEDNESDAY...A FINE POST-FRONTAL DAY WITH A PASSING SFC RIDGE. HIGH  
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH SFC DPTS ADVECTED DOWN INTO  
THE 60S. MAY HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG IN MIND FOR WED  
NIGHT IF WE STAY CLEAR WITH LIGHT TO CALM SFC WINDS.  
 
LATE IN THE WEEK AND BEYOND, WE SEE LLVL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASE  
OVER THE AREA AGAIN, WITH WARM ADVECTION ALLOWING FOR HIGHER  
HUMIDITY AIR TO WORK IN, AS WELL AS INCREASE THE TEMPERATURES. UPPER  
80S TO LOW 90S WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HUMID  
CONDITIONS, MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE UNPLEASANT AGAIN. CURRENT  
FORECAST HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 FOR  
SOME. WHILE WE WILL SEE MOISTURE INCREASE THROUGH THE AREA, THE  
CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE  
AREA, KEEPING THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WEST OF THE AREA. THUS,  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW (<30%) FOR NOW, WITH SPATIAL  
COVERAGE LIMITED AT THIS TIME. STORM TRACK CURRENTLY SEEMS TO BE  
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA, BUT WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE  
CURRENT POPS ARE LARGELY CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS  
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTERLY THOUGH, INTRODUCING MORE  
WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS (30-40% CHANCE) SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THUS,  
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS AN  
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025  
 
WILL HAVE TO WALK IN ANOTHER LATE NIGHT MCS THROUGH THE TAF  
SITES WITH MAINLY OF 2 HOUR WINDOW OF LOW MVFR TO IFR STORM  
REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS. GUSTY STORM OUTFLOW ALSO POSSIBLE WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT BRL AND MLI. BEHIND  
THE STORMS TOWARD MORNING, GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW MVFR TO EVEN  
IFR CIGS AND SOME FOG WITH ONGOING LIGHT SFC WIND REGIME. SOME  
LINGERING POCKETS OF SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z-14Z TUE MORNING. THEN  
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE  
LATER TUE INTO TUE EVENING, THEN THE MAIN COOL FRONT PUSHES IN  
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUE EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS  
AND STORMS POSSIBLE ON THAT FEATURE THROUGH 8-10 PM TUE EVENING.  
BUT COVERAGE TO LOW TO PUT IN CHANCE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. A WIND  
SHIFT TUE EVENING TO THE NORTHWEST POST-FRONTALLY, BUT SPEEDS  
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF 4-8 KTS OR SO.  
 
 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...12  
LONG TERM...GUNKEL/12  
AVIATION...12  
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