538
FXUS63 KDVN 281046
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
546 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COOL FRONT.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
U.P. OF MICHIGAN WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS CONTINUA TO MOVE AWAY FROM A POOL OF 100 TO 200
J/KG SITTING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ENDING
ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 2
AM WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH THE WARM SPOT IN
AT MOLINE AND DAVENPORT AT 64 DEGREES.
THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE AREA IN THE 12
TO 15 UTC WINDOW BRINGING MORNING SHOWERS TO AN END ACROSS
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EASTERN IOWA.
MORNING CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST QUICKLY RESULTING IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COOL
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME MOISTURE POOLING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. TODAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SLOW MOVING FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA
UNTIL AFTER 06 UTC FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.
AND EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH EASTERN
IOWA, NORTHWEST ILLINOIS, AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI UNDER A
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS MOSTLY DRY
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NBM HIGHS ARE
IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ON AVERAGE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 50S. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW UP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
DROPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST US TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVING IN
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA MID WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT SIT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COOL FRONT THAT WILL SAG ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MORNING INTO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SCT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING WILL
SLOWLY TURN TO THE NORTH AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KNOTS. CEILINGS MAY LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 5 KFT. FOR THESE REASONS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...COUSINS/UTTECH
AVIATION...COUSINS
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