133
FXUS63 KDVN 290527
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1227 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
- A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COOL AIR AND WIND IS GROWING IN
CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON, IT IS POSITIONED FROM
MARSHALLTOWN IA, TO NEAR MUSCATINE, TO NEAR PEORIA IL. FOR NOW,
THERE IS A NARROW LINE OF CUMULUS ALONG THIS FRONT, AND SOME WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, REPRESENTED BY LOW 60S DEW POINTS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LACKING MUCH
FORCING BEYOND THE FOCUSING MECHANISM, POPS APPEAR BELOW 20 PERCENT
TODAY NEAR THAT BOUNDARY, AND DRY ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT, THIS FRONT WILL SEPARATE A COMFORTABLE NIGHT IN THE UPPER
50S WITH LIGHT WINDS, FROM THOSE JUST EAST OF THE FRONT, WHERE LOWS
IN THE LOW 50S ARE FORECAST, LARGELY DUE TO THE SHALLOW MOISTURE
EAST OF THE FRONT, ALLOWING DEW FORMATION TO DROP TEMPERATURES
LOWER. IN THE END, A PLEASANT, "WINDOWS OPEN" NIGHT IN EITHER CASE.
FRIDAY, THIS FRONT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE, SIMILARLY TO
TODAY, WITH A TYPICAL BUILD UP OF DIURNAL CUMULUS EXPECTED. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE, BUT WITH EXTREMELY LOW POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA. THE MODELS THAT DO SUGGEST
RAINFALL MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT, HOLD DEW POINTS UP IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S, AND THAT'S JUST TOO MOIST COMPARED TO REALITY.
HIGHS FRIDAY, RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 80S
SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE FOCUS FOR RAINFALL REMAINS WEST
OF OUR AREA, UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARDS MID WEEK.
THIS FRONT WOULD THEN TRANSITION TO UPPER MIDWEST BACK INTO A BELOW
PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND INTO WEEK 2.
THE WEATHER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN
CONSISTENTLY PLEASANT, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S,
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S.
THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY DOES HAVE SOME INDICATIONS OF STRONG MERIDIONAL
FLOW FROM NORTHERN CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST, I.E., A POTENT COOL HIGH
PRESSURE AVAILABLE. SOME RUNS OF THE GFS AND EC BOTH INDICATE A
SEASONALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. IF THIS
COMBINATION DOES OCCUR, OUR FIRST UNPLEASANTLY COLD, CLOUDY, WINDY
DAY OF THE FALL SEASON IS IN STORE. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR
THURSDAY!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES PUSHED A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY LEADING TO A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. THERE'S AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR SOME
MORNING FOG PRIMARILY AT DBQ, BUT CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW ON
THIS. THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TO PRODUCE CUMULUS AND PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS. THIS CHANCE IS GREATEST OVER IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT IT'S TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAF
AT THIS POINT. OTHER THAN THIS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PREVAIL AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...KIMBLE
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