629
FXUS63 KDVN 301828
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
128 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, TRENDING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK, WITH COVERAGE DECREASING EACH DAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY, WE WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT COME TROUGH, BRINGING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
A WEAK WAVE REMAINS SITUATED SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. VORTICITY GYRATING AROUND
THE LOW WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA, BUT
WILL BE NEAR ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WE MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP TODAY. IN CONTRAST TO
YESTERDAY, WE DON'T HAVE A STARK SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER
THE AREA, PROVIDING SURFACE FORCING. GRANTED, WE HAVE A WEAK
BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION, WHICH MAY ACT AS A
FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION, BUT CONFIDENCE IN STORM
COVERAGE REMAINS LOW. THUS, WE ARE EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE MORE
LIMITED, WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. OVERALL, WE ARE EXPECTING
TO SEE SOME CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH TIMING OF
THE BEST COVERAGE DURING PEAK HEATING, BETWEEN 3-6PM (20%
CHANCE). LOCATIONS BEST FAVORED FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL ROUGHLY
BE ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE FROM VINTON IA THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN HELD BACK A LITTLE FROM AM CLOUD
COVER IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT WE ARE STILL EXPECTING MOST
TO REACH THE MID-UPPER 70S. NEAR SUNSET, WE WILL SEE PRECIP
CHANCES DECREASE, LEAVING US WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS DUE TO THE
WAVE JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE AROUND 60 FOR THOSE UNDER THE CLOUDS
TONIGHT, WITH THOSE UNDER LESS CLOUD COVER SEEING TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 50S.
TOMORROW, WE ARE EXPECTING SIMILAR WEATHER TO TODAY, WITH LOWER
PRECIP CHANCES, AS WELL AS COVERAGE. THE WAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA, SLIGHTLY FARTHER AWAY THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUSED SHOWERS/STORMS, WHICH LARGELY
LOOKS TO START IN CENTRAL IA, AND REACHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN IA.
OVERALL, THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS,
SITUATED ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE FROM IOWA CITY IA TO ALEDO IL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN, WITH MID-UPPER
70S EXPECTED AND A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
WEAK FLOW REMAINS THE STORY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS A WEAK
WAVE OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST MEANDERS EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP AN AREA OF VORTICITY IN RELATIVE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR DAILY LOW-END POPS. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED. RATHER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS
EACH AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST IA. IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. ALTHOUGH, EACH DAY, THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO GO DOWN. THUS, MORE LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THAN THEY AREA WET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR-SEAONAL, WITH MID-
UPPER 70S AND SOME REACHING NEAR 80. ASIDE FROM THE MILD
TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL HUMIDITY, WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A MIX OF
CLOUDS/SUN AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS UNTIL TUESDAY, WHEN WE START TO
SEE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN START CHANGE.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, WE SEE QUITE THE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. WE HAVE BEEN IN A RELATIVELY LOW FLOW REGIME, BUT WE ARE
WATCHING QUITE THE WAVE DIG INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL NOT
ONLY BRING THROUGH AT LEAST ONE STRONG COLD FRONT, BUT STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL
COME THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY WITH OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT STILL REMAINING
LOW. ALSO, THIS WILL BE A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD HELP
PREVENT ANY LONG DURATION HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IT
IS TOO SOON TO DISCUSS ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT IT SEEMS TO BE A
LOW THREAT AT THIS TIME. ONE OF THE BIG THINGS THAT WE ARE
SEEING WITH THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS THE STRONG
COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL PUMP IN BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK INTO THE AREA, WHICH
IS REPRESENTED WELL AMONGST GUIDANCE. NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. GUIDANCE
IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW-MID 60S FOR SOME (SOME GUIDANCE EVEN INDICATES THE UPPER
50S)! SO, THAT WILL BE QUITE THE CHANGE, ESPECIALLY WITH
WIDESPREAD NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THIS COOL DOWN
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE LONG LASTING THOUGH, AS WE ARE LOOKING AT A
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
INTRODUCING WARMER AIR.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE TAF
PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, WHICH MAY IMPACT SOME LOCATIONS. THIS WILL
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DECREASED CIGS/VIS, GENERALLY IN MVFR-
IFR RANGE. ALTHOUGH, CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW, WITH COVERAGE
ALSO BEING LOW. THUS, HAVE OPTED TO WITHHOLD MENTION FROM THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. RATHER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND
WHEREVER NECESSARY WHEN/IF THE SHOWERS DEVELOP. MAIN LOCATION
THAT MAY SEE IMPACTS WILL BE BRL. OTHERWISE, A MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN
WILL BE SEEN, WITH EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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