985
FXUS63 KDVN 311830
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
130 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK, TRENDING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY, WHEN
WE HAVE A STRONG COLD FRONT COME TROUGH, BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON IT. ALTHOUGH, A NON-ZERO
CHANCE REMAINS (<20% CHANCE). BEST CHANCES TO SEE ANYTHING WILL BE
IN OUR SOUTHWEST. THUS, MOST WILL REMAIN DRY AND BEAUTIFUL
THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND EVENING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70. TONIGHT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A MIX
OF CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA.
THUS, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE IN THE MID-UPPER 50S THERE,
WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REACHING THE LOW 50S.
TOMORROW, WE ARE LOOKING AT THE SAME FORECAST AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE
ACTUALLY OPTED TO TAKE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST,
AS CONFIDENCE IS MORE ALIGNED WITH A DRY AND BEAUTIFUL DAY TO START
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S THROUGHOUT, WITH
CLOUDS DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, WE WILL
BE LEFT WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZE. THUS, ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL
START TO THE WORK WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
WEAK FLOW REMAINS THE STORY THROUGH TUESDAY, KEEPING AN AREA OF
VORTICITY IN RELATIVE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AREA. THIS FEATURE
HASN'T MOVED MUCH OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS IN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. EACH DAY,
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HAVE GONE DOWN, WITH SPATIAL COVERAGE
ALSO DECREASING. THUS, COME TUESDAY, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. INCREASING CHANCES WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA. THUS, A DRY DAY IS FORECAST TUESDAY, WITH A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, WE SEE QUITE THE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. WE HAVE BEEN IN A RELATIVELY LOW FLOW REGIME WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT WE ARE
WATCHING QUITE THE WAVE DIG INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL NOT
ONLY BRING THROUGH AT LEAST ONE STRONG COLD FRONT, BUT STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL
COME THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY WITH OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT STILL REMAINING
LOW. ALSO, THIS WILL BE A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD HELP
PREVENT ANY LONG DURATION HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IT
IS TOO SOON TO DISCUSS ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT IT SEEMS TO BE A
LOW THREAT OVERALL AT THIS TIME. ONE OF THE BIG THINGS THAT WE ARE
SEEING WITH THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS THE STRONG COLD
ADVECTION THAT WILL PUMP IN BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK INTO THE AREA, WHICH IS REPRESENTED
WELL AMONGST GUIDANCE. NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR SOME
(SOME GUIDANCE EVEN INDICATES THE UPPER 50S)! SO, THAT WILL BE QUITE
THE CHANGE, ESPECIALLY WITH WIDESPREAD NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN ON FRIDAY,
WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AGAIN, AS WELL AS BRING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF RAIN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE LONGEVITY OF THIS COOLER AIRMASS, IT DOESN'T SEEM
TO BE LONG LASTING, AS WE ARE LOOKING AT A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION, INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN. WITH THIS COMING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WE SHOULD HOLD ONTO THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AS STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVERHEAD, USHERING COOLER/DRYER AIR INTO
THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AND A MIX OF CLOUDS. OTHERWISE,
NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
WITH THE UPCOMING COOL AIR MASS, SOME DAILY RECORD LOWS AND
RECORD COOL HIGHS ARE IN RANGE OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN. THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE SHOWN BELOW:
RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURE:
SEPTEMBER 4 SEPTEMBER 5
MOLINE 61 IN 1874 61 IN 1876
DUBUQUE 58 IN 1994 61 IN 1920
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE:
SEPTEMBER 4 SEPTEMBER 5
MOLINE 39 IN 1974 42 IN 1974
DUBUQUE 38 IN 1974 44 IN 1988 AND OTHERS
CEDAR RAPIDS 38 IN 1974 42 IN 1974
BURLINGTON 40 IN 1974 44 IN 1962
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...GUNKEL
CLIMATE...KIMBLE
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