137
FXUS63 KDVN 041036
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
536 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING A RISK OF RAIN TONIGHT FOR
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. STRONG WINDS
GUSTING TO 30+ MPH ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.
- THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP COMMENCES FOR NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE PRE-DAWN AND DAYLIGHT HOURS
DRY ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE PERFORMANCE OF TEMPERATURES SO FAR
OVERNIGHT, NO RECORD LOWS WILL BE SEEN. RECORD COOL HIGHS ARE ALSO
UNLIKELY BUT DUBUQUE MAY BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES.
TONIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SECONDARY SHOT
OF COOL CANADIAN AIR. FORCING HAS TRENDED STRONGER BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LESS THAN WITH THE WEDNESDAY EVENT. AS A RESULT, THE
PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL IS NOT GREAT. OVERALL THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO BE ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE ALSO FAIRLY STABLE SO OUTSIDE OF A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM, THE RAIN
TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SHOWERS.
GIVEN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, ANY RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR
BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER 0.1 INCH.
THE BIGGER MESSAGE TONIGHT WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS. GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF STRONGER
WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CANADIAN
HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW
NORMAL. A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MONDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ASSESSMENT...LOW (<20%) CONFIDENCE ON RAIN TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH (>90%) CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL.
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TREND ABOVE NORMAL.
THE VARIOUS MODELS HAVE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE MIDWEST IN THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE
OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED. HOWEVER, THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IS RESPECTABLE.
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPING WHICH
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL ENSEMBLE RUNS OF THE VARIOUS GLOBAL
MODELS.
THUS THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS 20 PERCENT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 531 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH 00Z/05. AFTER 00Z/05 A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS BRINGING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND POSSIBLY A TSRA. BEHIND THE FRONT
WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS OR
HIGHER POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z/05. LOW LEVEL MECHANICAL TURBULENCE
WILL INCREASE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER
WHERE WINDS COULD JUMP TO 40+ KNOTS IN THE 1.3-1.7 KFT AGL
LAYER.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 4 SEPTEMBER 5
MOLINE 61 IN 1874 61 IN 1876
DUBUQUE 58 IN 1994 61 IN 1920
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...NWS
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