095
FXUS63 KDVN 102318
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
618 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. MANY AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 90 DEGREES WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY.
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS HAS LED TO CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN, BUT OUR AREA HAS STAYED LARGELY DRY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF HUDSON BAY
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND, WITH ITS INFLUENCE WIDELY FELT EVEN INTO OUR
AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT, WE'LL SEE
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THEIR AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS, IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. SO
DESPITE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE AVERAGE, LOWS ARE
STILL BELOW AVERAGE IN THIS DRY AND TRANQUIL AIR MASS. UPPER
RIDGING CONTINUES TO NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND
WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY, INTO
THE 80S FOR MOST, WITH CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
THE UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVER OUR REGION ON SATURDAY, CONTRIBUTING
TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THIS AIR MASS. MUCH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 90S. A FEW CAVEATS ON
THAT, THOUGH. FIRST, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE RIDGE MAY
BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BACKING OFF ON THIS THREAT FOR OUR
AREA, WITH LESS THAN 30 PERCENT OF 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA. NBM HAS SIMILARLY BACKED
OFF ON POPS. HOWEVER, EVEN CLOUD COVER FROM THIS COULD BE ONE
SPOILER TO WARMER TEMPERATURES IF IT OCCURS. SECOND, THE GFS
CONTINUES ITS WELL KNOWN STRUGGLE WITH OVER-MIXING THE LOW
LEVELS IN THE CORE OF THIS RIDGE. IT HAS THE LOW LEVELS MIXING
TO ABOVE 700MB, RAISING SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 100S.
THAT'S A BIT UNREALISTIC FOR THE SCENARIO. THE GFS DOES CONTINUE
TO POLLUTE THE NBM A BIT, AND WE CONTINUE TO COLLABORATE TO
PULL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES THIS WEEKEND
AS A RESULT. MOST GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LOW TO MID
90S AS THE LIKELY RANGE FOR TEMPERATURES. THANKFULLY HUMIDITY
REMAINS LOW AS THE GULF IS CUT OFF FROM SENDING SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE OUR WAY AND RECENT DRYNESS IS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOCAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WILL ONLY ADD A DEGREE OR TWO TO THE HEAT INDEX, REMAINING
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ON
SUNDAY, AND THE FIRST POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A SERIES OF
TROUGHS EJECTS OUT OF THE BROADER WESTERN US TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS OUR AREA GETS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WE
WILL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. ADDITIONAL WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COMING
DAYS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE QUESTION IS MAINLY WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY IMPACTS OUR AREA OR STAYS FURTHER TO THE WEST. WHILE
LEADING TO A RATHER MURKY POP FORECAST, IT ALSO ADDS UNCERTAINTY
TO THE TEMPERATURES. WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARM
RIDGE, SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. BUT HOW HOT?
IT SEEMS IF WE GET IMPACTED BY ONE OF THOSE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, THEN WE WON'T BE AS
HOT. HOWEVER, IF WE SEE MORE DRY DAYS WITH A MORE DOMINANT RIDGE
THEN WE COULD REMAIN JUST AS HOT NEXT WEEK AS WE ARE THIS
WEEKEND, IN THE 90S. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NBM INTERQUARTILE
RANGE WHICH HAS NARROWED RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT
REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGHER IN THE 5 TO 7 DEGREE RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
WINDS TO BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AND VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...08
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page