188
FXUS63 KDVN 110735
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
235 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND WEEKEND, WITH 90S APPROACHING THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FORTUNATELY, LOW HUMIDITY SHOULD LIMIT ANY
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AT THIS TIME.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE ARE LOW-END CHANCES, THERE SEEMS TO BE
MORE DRY TIME THAN WET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT BEST CHANCE
WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT, AS
THE UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO BUILD AND VERY SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE DAY, SLOWLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THUS, LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY, SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERALL, WE
ARE GEARED TO HAVE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY, WITH MOST IN THE LOW-MID 80S AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ENSURE A
PLEASANT DAY AHEAD OF US, WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TONIGHT INTO THE
MID 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE NUDGING EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA, WHICH SHOULD BRING IN MORE READINGS IN THE
MID-UPPER 80S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO
INTRODUCE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S, BUT CONFIDENCE IN SUCH
REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT, AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW END
PROBABILITIES. OVERALL, WE ARE SEEING CHANCES FOR HITTING 90
BEING <30% THROUGHOUT. IF ANYWHERE IS TO SEE THESE HIGH
READINGS ON FRIDAY, IT WILL BE AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.
ALTHOUGH, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S.
THIS WEEKEND, THE 850HPA JET BECOMES BETTER ORIENTED OVER OUR AREA,
AS THE RIDGE FINALLY STARTS TO PUSH FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL START TO
USHER IN EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES, BRINGING IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS. THUS, SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD 90S. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS SUCH WITH ABOUT A 50-80%
CHANCE FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80, WITH A 30-50% CHANCE
FOR THOSE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. OUR CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN
SEEING THESE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY, WHEN COMPARED TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORTUNATELY, DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOW-MID 60S. SO, WHILE IT MAY ADD A LITTLE THICKNESS TO THE
AIR, WE WON'T BE OPPRESSIVE LIKE WE SAW THROUGH MUCH OF THE SUMMER.
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES, WE WILL START TO SEE
INSTABILITY BUILD THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PASS ALONG THE FLOW, COMING RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA. THESE MAY PROVIDE THE NECESSARY FORCING
FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS. OVER THE LAST FEW FORECAST PACKAGES, WE
HAVE SEEN THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASE THOUGH. THUS,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER/STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE EURO/GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF A
DECAYING COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH. AT THIS TIME, THE SEVERE
THREAT SEEMS TO BE LOW, ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING BEING OVERNIGHT, BUT
WE WILL GET A BETTER IDEA AS MORE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE COMES IN.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE
AND WARM. WITH THAT SAID, THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE DRY TIME THAN
RAINY/STORMY. CPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH
GLOBAL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AT THE START
OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 12Z, WITH THE DIRECTION
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AFTER 12Z. NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...GUNKEL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page