770
FXUS63 KDVN 120554
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1254 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER HEAT RETURNS THIS WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH WITHOUT THE EXTREME
SUMMER HUMIDITY. HOT TEMPERATURES LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE PUSHING OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. WE'LL LIKELY KEEP
JUST ENOUGH WIND FLOW OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG
FORMATION. UPPER RIDGING NUDGES IN FROM THE EAST FRIDAY,
OPENING UP SOME EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR US. WE'LL SEE HIGHS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL TO COME.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
THE UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVER OUR AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY,
LIKELY BRINGING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS AIR MASS.
WIDESPREAD 90S ARE LIKELY FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS, THOUGH HUMIDITY
WILL BE MERCIFULLY LOWER THAN WHAT WE TYPICALLY SEE IN SUMMER.
THE WORST OF THE HUMIDITY REMAINS LOCKED IN OVER THE GULF WHERE
AN EASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED IT INTO MEXICO. MORE LIMITED
MOISTURE HAS BEEN TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
WE'LL START TO GET IN ON SOME LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS. THAT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE HEAT INDEX UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVER
THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE, BUT LIKELY REMAINING BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH MIXING THE LOW
LEVELS TOO DEEP AND THUS BRINGS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE
CORE OF THE RIDGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NOW THAT WE'RE WITHIN A
COUPLE DAYS OF THIS FORECAST THERE ARE A FEW MORE SOURCES WHICH
GO INTO THE NBM AT THIS RANGE, AND THUS NBM FORECAST HIGHS HAVE
COME DOWN. WE COLLABORATED TO LOWER THESE A BIT FURTHER AGAIN,
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN LINE WITH MOST NON-GFS GUIDANCE
SOURCES.
THE LARGE TROUGH UPSTREAM OF OUR RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
AND SHIFT A SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF ITS ENERGY EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS NOW MOVING THIS TROUGH A LITTLE
MORE NORTH AND A LITTLE LESS EAST, SO IT'S LESS CLEAR THAT WE'LL
GET ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS LOCALLY. HOWEVER, HOT AND
MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO INSTABILITY EACH
AFTERNOON, SO WE CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW POP UP SHOWERS OR STORMS
EACH DAY. WITH THE TROUGH NOW LIKELY TO STAY MAINLY TO OUR WEST,
THE RIDGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO REMAIN IN MORE FIRM CONTROL OF OUR
AREA EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS THE HOT WEATHER
CONTINUES, THOUGH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
WEEKEND.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY WHEN IT COMES TO
MULTIPLE TROUGHS TO OUR WEST AND THE RESULTING IMPACT ON THE
RIDGE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT,
WE'RE NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON HOW LONG THE HEAT WILL LAST AND
WHEN OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE. WHEN THE RIDGE
FINALLY RELEASES ITS GRIP AND A TROUGH MOVES IN WILL BE OUR BEST
SHOT AT MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND A SHIFT TOWARD COOLER
TEMPERATURES. AT THIS POINT THAT DOESN'T LOOK LIKELY UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AT THE EARLIEST, BUT POTENTIALLY NOT UNTIL THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10 KTS, BUT A BIT STRONGER AT CID GUSTING
15-20 KTS ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES LATE IN THE PERIOD NEAR CID AND
DBQ; LEFT OUT MENTION IN THE TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON
COVERAGE.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...UTTECH
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