447
FXUS63 KDVN 130806
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
306 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAYS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WITH MOST
AREAS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID TO LATE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
THIS WEEKEND:
THE UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR MOST AREAS AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S. THE HUMIDITY WON'T BE AS HIGH AS MID SUMMER BUT
STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO PUSH HEAT INDICES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE. FORECAST PEAK HEAT INDICES TODAY AND
SUNDAY ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES, WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
DIURNAL MIXING OF ANOMALOUSLY WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES (>99TH
PERCENTILE IN NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY) IN THE LOWER 20S (C) DOWN TO
THE SURFACE, COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. [SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION
FOR DAILY RECORDS WHICH ARE APPROXIMATELY 3-6 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS]
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS COULD CLIP PORTIONS
OF NW ILLINOIS MAINLY THIS MORNING WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVER THE REGION. THE MORE FOCUSED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS, ALONG A LAKE MICHIGAN ENHANCED SURFACE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE, THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY
WITH THE LACK OF A TRIGGER TO KICK OFF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
WITH THAT SAID, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP DURING
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING (LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA).
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK, MULTIPLE TROUGHS TO OUR WEST ATTEMPT TO
PUSH BACK THE RIDGE, BUT GENERALLY FAIL. THE RIDGE HOLDS FIRM
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A TROUGH FINALLY
BREAKS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. SO FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK WE'LL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WITH
SUMMER HEAT CONTINUING. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO ON THE IDEA THAT WE WILL
FINALLY SEE A TROUGH PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SO THAT GIVES US A CLEARER IDEA OF WHEN THE HEAT WILL END AND
WHEN WE'LL FINALLY SEE SOME MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES. THE
LATEST NBM HAS 20-50% CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WHILE THERE'S NOT A CLEAR SIGNAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, I WOULDN'T
COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT AT THIS POINT. AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN WE
WILL SEE BETTER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF IT,
INCREASING WIND SHEAR, AND THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
INSTABILITY AROUND IN THE WANING DAYS OF THE HOT, MODERATELY
HUMID AIR MASS. SO THERE WILL AT LEAST BE A FEW INGREDIENTS
NEARBY AND WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IF THEY LINE UP IN TIME AND SPACE
TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT THREATS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREVAILING VFR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(<20%) FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR DBQ EARLY
SATURDAY AM (09Z - 14Z). HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON THE
COVERAGE WITH THE BETTER CHANCES WELL TO THE EAST, SO DID NOT
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 13:
KBRL: 98/1927
KCID: 96/1930
KMLI: 97/1939
KDBQ: 96/1939
SEPTEMBER 14:
KBRL: 99/1939
KCID: 96/1939
KMLI: 99/1939
KDBQ: 97/1939
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...KIMBLE/UTTECH
AVIATION...UTTECH
CLIMATE...UTTECH
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