503
FXUS63 KDVN 132250
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
550 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BY LATE WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MID TO LATE WEEK
AREA-WIDE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
OUR UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND (AND REALLY WON'T ABATE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK),
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. SYNOPTICALLY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CHURN
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA, WHICH HAS HELPED TO LIFT A WARM FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS OUR REGION, ALONG WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS RIGHT
OVER US. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE 850 MB TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO STAY AROUND THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S C, WHICH IS AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN THE ENSEMBLE
CLIMATOLOGY, SO THIS AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE HOT FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE DAYTIME INSOLATION, WILL
SUPPORT THIS PERIOD OF HOT CONDITIONS. THE ECMWF EFI/SHIFT OF
TAILS ALSO SUPPORTS THIS, WITH VALUES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE 0.8 TO 0.99 RANGE, WHICH
STRONGLY SUGGESTS AN UNUSUALLY HOT AIR MASS IN PLACE. HUMIDITY
WON'T BE QUITE AS HIGH AS IT WAS BACK IN JULY AND AUGUST, BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S TO PUSH HEAT INDICES TODAY AND SUNDAY INTO THE LOWER
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 30.
AFTER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER NORTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS, WE'RE EXPECTING LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE DAY. ONE THING TO WATCH FOR LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS IS AN INCREASING CHANCE
(20-30%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TODAY. THE TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY-TILTED WITH
TIME OVER THE PLAINS REGION, AND IT MIGHT JUST NOSE FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE FORCING. CAMS HAVE DISPLAYED SOME
DISCREPANCIES, WITH THE HRRR/FV3/RAP SHOWING SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CAMS REMAINING DRY, SO
WHILE WE'VE INTRODUCED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, WE'VE
MAINTAINED LOWER POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THINGS WILL
PLAY OUT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE HOT AIR MASS
IN PLACE, ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM THIS WEEKEND IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S
TO LOWER 90S PER THE NBM, SO A BIT OF MODERATION EXPECTED.
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED AS WELL, WITH DEW POINTS
DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
THE HEAT WILL BECOME SCOURED OUT BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS REGION. NOT ONLY WILL THIS TROUGH HELP SCOUR OUT THE
HEAT, BUT IT WILL ALSO BRING OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE AREA. NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW AROUND 20-50% CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE LAST FEW FORECASTERS HAVE SAID IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS,
WE CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN, WE WILL SEE
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF IT, INCREASING WIND
SHEAR, AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE INSTABILITY AROUND IN THE
WANING DAYS OF THE HOT, MODERATELY HUMID AIR MASS. SO THERE WILL
AT LEAST BE A FEW INGREDIENTS NEARBY, AND WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IF
THEY LINE UP IN TIME AND SPACE TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
THREATS. ADDITIONALLY, THE VARIOUS MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE
WEATHER OUTPUTS FROM CSU AND NSSL BOTH SUGGEST AT LEAST A LOWER-
END POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, SO SOMETHING FOR US TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE APPROACH
THAT TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOG POTENTIAL IN NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS AND FAR EASTERN IOWA, INCLUDING DBQ. WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS OF THE UPPER 60S TO 70F IN THAT AREA AS OF EARLY EVENING,
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SOME FOG MENTION AT
DBQ, AND CANNOT RULE OUT FURTHER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY THERE AT
DAYBREAK. WHILE SOME FOG MAY NOT BE FAR NORTH AND EAST OF MLI,
CURRENTLY THE PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS (<30 PERCENT COVERAGE) ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST IOWA, BUT AT
THIS TIME LOOK TO BE AWAY FROM LOCAL TAF SITES.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
TODAY, SEPTEMBER 13:
KBRL: 98/1927
KCID: 96/1930
KMLI: 97/1939
KDBQ: 96/1939
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 14:
KBRL: 99/1939
KCID: 96/1939
KMLI: 99/1939
KDBQ: 97/1939
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ/UTTECH
AVIATION...FRIEDLEIN
CLIMATE...UTTECH
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