594
FXUS63 KDVN 141005
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
505 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BY LATE WEEK.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MID TO LATE WEEK
AREA-WIDE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30, WITH UPPER 80S
INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE HUMIDITY
WILL BE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, NOT AT MID SUMMER LEVELS,
BUT STILL MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEWPOINTS AT TIMES. THIS WILL
CREATE PEAK HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30, AND INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S TO THE
NORTH. NEARLY FULL SUN TODAY (ASIDE FROM PASSING HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS) AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 MPH WILL ADD TO THE IMPACTS OF
THE HEAT. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
THERMAL PROFILE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE UPPER PERCENTILE OF NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY (LOWER
20S CELSIUS).
BUILDING MLCAPE THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
MAY BE ENOUGH WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST
IN THIS PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA (15-25%).
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE HOT AIR MASS
IN PLACE, ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM THIS WEEKEND IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S
TO LOWER 90S PER THE NBM, SO A BIT OF MODERATION EXPECTED.
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED AS WELL, WITH DEW POINTS
DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
THE HEAT WILL BECOME SCOURED OUT BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS REGION. NOT ONLY WILL THIS TROUGH HELP SCOUR OUT THE
HEAT, BUT IT WILL ALSO BRING OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE AREA. NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW AROUND 20-50% CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN, WE WILL SEE STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF IT, INCREASING WIND SHEAR, AND THERE WILL LIKELY
BE INSTABILITY AROUND IN THE WANING DAYS OF THE HOT, MODERATELY
HUMID AIR MASS. SO THERE WILL AT LEAST BE A FEW INGREDIENTS
NEARBY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS, AND WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IF THEY
LINE UP IN TIME AND SPACE TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT THREATS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE VARIOUS MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE WEATHER
OUTPUTS FROM CSU AND NSSL BOTH SUGGEST AT LEAST A LOWER-END
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, SO SOMETHING FOR US TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE APPROACH
THAT TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IS POSSIBLE AT
THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR. SLIGHT CHANCE (<20% COVERAGE) FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO FORM THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST IOWA, LOOKING TO REMAIN TO THE WSW OF BRL.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ/UTTECH
AVIATION...UTTECH
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