389
FXUS63 KDVN 142329
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK BEFORE MODERATING BY THURSDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK,
WITH INCREASING CHANCES (30-50%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
THURSDAY AREA- WIDE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE ON THE
UNSEASONABLY HOT PATTERN. THETA-E ADVECTION ON SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER
A SLOWLY EXITING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE HAS HELPED TO BRING THIS HOT AIR
MASS OVER OUR REGION, AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT UNTIL CLOSER TO MID-WEEK. MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO
LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BOTH THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE 850
MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO HOVER IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
C, WHICH WOULD BE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE ON THE ECMWF 850 MB
TEMPERATURE CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILES. ADDITIONALLY, THE ECMWF
EFI/SHIFT OF TAILS CONTINUES TO SHOW VALUES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 0.8 TO 1.0 TODAY AND MONDAY AND SOT VALUES AROUND 0 TO 1,
WHICH STRONGLY SUGGESTS A HOTTER THAN AVERAGE AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR. MODERATE HUMIDITY, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S WILL SUPPORT HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S (PERHAPS NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR ISOLATED LOCATIONS), SO IT
WILL FEEL QUITE HOT AND MUGGY.
WE ARE ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH, WHICH CAN
BE SEEN CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA PER LATEST GOES-EAST
MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVELY-TILTED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, AND IT'S EXPECTED TO
MAINLY STAY OVER THE PLAINS REGION FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE A REGION OF ENHANCED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE JUST EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR
WESTERN CWA, WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM IS POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE HAS LOWERED FOR ANY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AS IT APPEARS LESS LIKELY WE WILL REACH THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES, BUT WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS AROUND 20% ON THE OFF-
CHANCE THAT ANYTHING DEVELOPS WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. MORE
ROBUST LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH APPROACHES OUR REGION. AMPLE
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE IS POSSIBLE PER
THE LATEST HREF ENSEMBLE, SO LOW CHANCES (20-30%) OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA MONDAY. AT THIS TIME,
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AND SPC DOESN'T HAVE US OUTLOOKED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE HOT AIR MASS IN
PLACE, ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
FROM THIS WEEKEND IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S PER
THE LATEST NBM, SO A SLIGHT MODERATION EXPECTED. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO
REMAIN ELEVATED AS WELL, WITH DEW POINTS DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
THE HEAT WILL BECOME SCOURED OUT BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS REGION. NOT ONLY WILL THIS TROUGH HELP SCOUR OUT THE
HEAT, BUT IT WILL ALSO BRING OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE AREA. NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW AROUND 30-50% CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN, WE WILL SEE STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF IT, INCREASING WIND SHEAR, AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE
INSTABILITY AROUND IN THE WANING DAYS OF THE HOT, MODERATELY HUMID
AIR MASS. SO THERE WILL AT LEAST BE A FEW INGREDIENTS NEARBY FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS, AND WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IF THEY LINE UP IN TIME
AND SPACE TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT THREATS. ADDITIONALLY, THE
VARIOUS MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE WEATHER OUTPUTS FROM CSU, NCAR, AND
NSSL ALL SUGGEST A LOWER-END POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, SO SOMETHING FOR US TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS
WE APPROACH THAT TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AT CID, MON AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS IMPACTING TAF SITE IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ/UTTECH
AVIATION...GIBBS
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