708
FXUS63 KDVN 021042
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
542 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD.
- LOW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THIS FEATURE TO PRODUCE MUCH IF ANY
RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
A 500 MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 00 UTC FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IF CLOUD COVER IS THICK ENOUGH, IT MAY LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. HOWEVER MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA INDICATING LIMITED CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO REBOUND TODAY AND USED THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
500 MB HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 00
UTC FRIDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THINKING IN THE LONG TERM AND
BELOW IS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LATEST ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO NUDGE BROAD
WARM UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE REGION FOR UNSEASONABLE WARM/HOT TEMPS
MOST OF THIS PERIOD. A LOT OF UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AND NOT THAT FAR
OFF OF RECORD HIGHS AT MOST OF THE CLIMATE SITES BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS MIXING OUT TO 10-20+ MPH BY
MIDDAY AND ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS/LOW RH'S MAY MEAN SOME ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER THESE DAYS(SAT & SUN) ESPECIALLY IN UNHARVESTED CROP
FIELDS.
BLOCKED PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO BE ACTED UPON BY BUILDING LONG WAVE
UPPER TROF ACRS THE WESTERN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC COOL FRONT ALIGNED PARALLEL UNDER THE TROF'S
LEESIDE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS AND GET SHUNTED IN FROM
THE WEST-NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND THAT'S WHEN THE
NEXT PRECIP CHANCE WINDOW OCCURS MAINLY IN ANAFRONT FORM. MOISTURE
RETURN AND FEED INTO THIS FEATURE STILL LOOKS MARGINAL AND LACKING A
MORE OPTIMUM SOURCE REGION, THUS AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS
FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY STILL UNCERTAIN.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE PASSING FRONT, CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL ALSO
PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMP POSSIBILITIES ON MONDAY, AND THE LOADED NBM
COULD BE WAY OFF ON THE MILD SIDE. ALSO SOME SIGNS THE FRONT MAY
STALL OR GO QUASI-STATIONARY ACRS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY UNTIL MORE
UPPER JET ENERGY AND TROFFINESS DIGS DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND ACRS THE
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE
TRENDING COOLER AND WITH HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES LOOKING TO OCCUR
THROUGH TUESDAY, BEFORE POST-FRONTAL SFC RIDGING DUMPS DOWN OUT OF
CANADA AND PRODUCES EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS BACKDOOR STYLE FOR NEXT
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 6 KFT ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 15 UTC THURSDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AFTER 14 UTC WITH SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10
KNOTS THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00 UTC.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...COUSINS
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