099
FXUS63 KDVN 030442
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1142 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
..UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE EARLY FALL TEMPERATURES MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
A SUMMER LIKE DAY AND NIGHT FOR EARLY OCTOBER HIGHLIGHTS THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. DUBUQUE
WOULD HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO MAKE A RUN AT A RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY, WHICH IS 89 DEGREES SET IN 1953. MOLINE
WILL ALSO BE CLOSE WITH A RECORD OF 91 SET IN 1953 AS WELL. ELSEWHERE,
RECORDS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND ARE LIKELY UNATTAINABLE.
STILL, WELL ABOVE NORMAL WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
A VERY MILD OVERNIGHT IS FORECAST TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 60S. RECORDS FOR WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO BE OUT OF REACH TONIGHT, WITH RECORDS LARGELY IN THE MID 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
VERY WARM, WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS WITH A
PERSISTENT PATTERN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX (EFI) AND SHIFT OF
TAILS (SOT) FOR HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD ARE
AT ELEVATED VALUES, INDICATING HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ANOMALOUS
EARLY FALL HEAT THAT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER WITH NEAR TO
RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER
90S, AND WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WITH REDUCED OVERNIGHT
COOLING.
SATURDAY HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO OVERACHIEVE ON
TEMPERATURES AS MIXING WILL BE MAXIMIZED ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO
FRIDAY. IF IT DOES OVERACHIEVE, HIGH TEMPERATURE INTO THE MID
90S ARE POSSIBLE (A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE). REGARDING FIRE
WEATHER, CROPLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE GREATER THAN GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING AND POTENTIALLY STALL OUT
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG, AND
MORE LIKELY BEHIND, THE STALLING COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. DESPITE A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, OVERALL
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL, AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. TRAINING OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
COOLER AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, WITH MORE SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE,
WITH INITIALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH BASES AROUND 7-9KFT AGL MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP BY SCT-BKN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH BASES AROUND 5-6KFT AGL.
THERE IS LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPING 19Z-23Z WITHIN THIS CUMULUS FIELD NEAR TO SOUTH OF
BRL. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AT 5-10 KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
FRIDAY OCTOBER 3RD RECORDS
BURLINGTON....95....2006
CEDAR RAPIDS..94....1997
DUBUQUE.......90....1997
MOLINE........95....2006
SATURDAY OCTOBER 4TH RECORDS
BURLINGTON....91....1938
CEDAR RAPIDS..91....1938
DUBUQUE.......89....1897
MOLINE........91....2005
SUNDAY OCTOBER 5TH RECORDS
BURLINGTON....89....2007
CEDAR RAPIDS..90....2024
DUBUQUE.......87....1922
MOLINE........89....2024
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NWS
LONG TERM...NWS
AVIATION...MCCLURE
CLIMATE...NWS
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