872
FXUS63 KDVN 030739
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
239 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
NEAR TO POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH GUSTY
WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FOR FIELD FIRES.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE EARLY FALL TEMPERATURES MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SURFACE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS SET TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW/WARM ADVECTION, AS WE'LL BE
SITUATED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGING WITHIN A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
THE CORRESPONDINGLY STOUT THERMAL RIDGE IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM
OF THE LOW WILL ADVECT TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY NOSE INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT ONE FINAL CRESCENDO OF
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME HIGHS, WHICH LOOK TO BE NEAR TO
POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S) ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
THE CORE OF THE LLJ AND STRONGEST WINDS THIS WEEKEND FAVOR FROM
KANSAS TO MINNESOTA, WHERE WIND HEADLINES APPEAR PROBABLE.
THIS WILL BE MAINLY TO OUR WEST, BUT WE'LL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30+ MPH BOTH
DAYS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS FAVORED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE ONGOING ANOMALOUSLY DRY AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND GUSTY WINDS AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN'T QUITE LOOK LIKE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY
FURTHER DECREASE IN RH AIDED BY DEEPER MIXING AND STRONGER WINDS.
THE CONCERN WILL BE ESPECIALLY FOR FIELD FIRES WITH THE CROPLAND
FIRE DANGER IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY. CROPLANDS ARE CURED
AND WITH FARM EQUIPMENT IN THE FIELD SHOULD ANY SPARK START A FIRE
IN THESE CONDITIONS IT COULD LEAD TO NOT ONLY RAPID FIRE GROWTH, BUT
ALSO QUICK SPREAD IN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS. OUTDOOR BURNING IS
STRONGLY DISCOURAGED, AND THOSE WORKING IN FIELDS SHOULD BE EXTREMELY
CAREFUL/CAUTIOUS TO NOT START A FIRE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
SLOWING NOTED AND NOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON FROPA MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SOMEWHAT SLOWER PROGRESSION NOTED WILL ALLOW
FOR A LITTLE MORE GULF MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT (PWATS 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES)
AND RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
IN POTENTIALLY 2 ROUNDS, THE FIRST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE SECOND WITH AN RENEWED
BOUT OF FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE SINKING BOUNDARY MONDAY PM/
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE 24 HOUR
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE AT 70-90+ PERCENT ENDING 12Z
TUESDAY. THIS WON'T BE A DROUGHT BUSTING RAINFALL, BUT THE ECMWF AND
GFS ENSEMBLES POINT TO MODERATE PROBABILITIES (40-50%) FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA PARTICULARLY CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IOWA FOR 0.5 INCH OF RAIN
AND 12Z LREF SUGGESTS MEAN RAINFALL OF 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH IN A CORRIDOR
FROM DUBUQUE TO CEDAR RAPIDS TOWARD DES MOINES AND OTTUMWA. SO THE
MAIN TAKEAWAY IS THAT THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR POCKETS OF BENEFICIAL
RAIN, BUT UNFORTUNATELY NOT ALL WILL SEE THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS,
AND JUST WHERE THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN (0.5"+) SETS UP IS LIKELY
TO CHANGE. STAY TUNED. WHILE SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL,
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME GIVEN WEAK TO MODEST
INSTABILITY PRE-FRONTAL AND UNFAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONGER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROGGED TO LAG POST-FRONTAL.
ONE THING THAT IS CERTAIN TO BE WIDESPREAD IS A REFRESHING FALL-LIKE
AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S/70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S/50S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE,
WITH INITIALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH BASES AROUND 7-9KFT AGL MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP BY SCT-BKN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH BASES AROUND 5-6KFT AGL.
THERE IS LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPING 19Z-23Z WITHIN THIS CUMULUS FIELD NEAR TO SOUTH OF
BRL. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AT 5-10 KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
FRIDAY OCTOBER 3RD RECORDS
BURLINGTON....95....2006
CEDAR RAPIDS..94....1997
DUBUQUE.......90....1997
MOLINE........95....2006
SATURDAY OCTOBER 4TH RECORDS
BURLINGTON....91....1938
CEDAR RAPIDS..91....1938
DUBUQUE.......89....1897
MOLINE........91....2005
SUNDAY OCTOBER 5TH RECORDS
BURLINGTON....89....2007
CEDAR RAPIDS..90....2024
DUBUQUE.......87....1922
MOLINE........89....2024
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...MCCLURE
CLIMATE...NWS
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