519
FXUS63 KDVN 031851
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
151 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
NEAR TO POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH GUSTY
WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FOR FIELD FIRES.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE EARLY FALL TEMPERATURES MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
THE HOT EARLY FALL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE ANOMALOUSLY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, COMBINED WITH S TO SSW WINDS GUSTING
20-35 MPH (HIGHEST ON SUNDAY) WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN UNHARVESTED FIELDS. HIGHS OVER THE
WEEKEND, IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WILL BE NEAR DAILY
RECORDS (SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS).
CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY FURTHER
DECREASE IN RH AIDED BY DEEPER MIXING AND STRONGER WINDS, WHICH
WOULD PUSH GFDIAG VALUES CLOSER TO RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.
AS MENTIONED, THE CONCERN WILL BE MAINLY FOR FIELD FIRES WITH
THE CROPLAND FIRE DANGER IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY. CROPLANDS
ARE CURED AND WITH FARM EQUIPMENT IN THE FIELD SHOULD ANY SPARK
START A FIRE IN THESE CONDITIONS IT COULD LEAD TO NOT ONLY RAPID
FIRE GROWTH, BUT ALSO QUICK SPREAD IN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED, AND THOSE WORKING IN
FIELDS SHOULD BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL/CAUTIOUS TO NOT START A FIRE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOME SLOWING NOTED AND NOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON FROPA MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SOMEWHAT SLOWER PROGRESSION NOTED WILL
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE GULF MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT (PWATS 1.25 TO
1.5 INCHES) AND RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IN POTENTIALLY 2 ROUNDS, THE FIRST ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE
SECOND WITH AN RENEWED BOUT OF FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP
THE SINKING BOUNDARY MONDAY PM/ NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LATEST
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE 24 HOUR PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL ARE AT 70-90+ PERCENT ENDING 12Z TUESDAY. THIS WON'T BE
A DROUGHT BUSTING RAINFALL, BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES
POINT TO MODERATE PROBABILITIES (40-50%) FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
PARTICULARLY CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IOWA FOR 0.5 INCH OF RAIN
AND 12Z LREF SUGGESTS MEAN RAINFALL OF 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH IN A
CORRIDOR FROM DUBUQUE TO CEDAR RAPIDS TOWARD DES MOINES AND
OTTUMWA. SO THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS THAT THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR
POCKETS OF BENEFICIAL RAIN, BUT UNFORTUNATELY NOT ALL WILL SEE
THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS, AND JUST WHERE THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN
(0.5"+) SETS UP IS LIKELY TO CHANGE. STAY TUNED. WHILE SOME
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL, SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME GIVEN WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY PRE-
FRONTAL AND UNFAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROGGED TO LAG POST-FRONTAL.
ONE THING THAT IS CERTAIN TO BE WIDESPREAD IS A REFRESHING FALL-LIKE
AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S/70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S/50S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
QUIET WEATHER WITH PREVAILING VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
FRIDAY OCTOBER 3RD RECORDS
BURLINGTON....95....2006
CEDAR RAPIDS..94....1997
DUBUQUE.......90....1997
MOLINE........95....2006
SATURDAY OCTOBER 4TH RECORDS
BURLINGTON....91....1938
CEDAR RAPIDS..91....1938
DUBUQUE.......89....1897
MOLINE........91....2005
SUNDAY OCTOBER 5TH RECORDS
BURLINGTON....89....2007
CEDAR RAPIDS..90....2024
DUBUQUE.......87....1922
MOLINE........89....2024
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH/MCCLURE
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...UTTECH
CLIMATE...MCCLURE
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