099
FXUS63 KDVN 041859
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
159 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY, WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TODAY AND SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR FIELD FIRES.
- RAIN IS LIKELY (60-70%) FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT, AND
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE EARLY FALL
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
THE WARM, AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY WARM STRETCH CONTINUES WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST TO OUR EAST IN THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RESULT FOR OUR AREA WILL BE MORE OF
THE SAME SUNSHINE, AND TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER RECORDS FOR EARLY
OCTOBER. THROUGH 1 PM TODAY, OUR TEMPERATUERS HAVE RISEN TO THE MID
80S AREA-WIDE, AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S REMAIN ON TARGET. THOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING AS EXPECTED, SO FAR, OUR DEW POINTS HAVE
REMAINED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP OUR RH
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40% RANGE. OUR AG-GFDI VALUES CONTINUE TO
REPRESENT "VERY HIGH" VALUES, BUT ARE A BIT LOWER THAN EARLIER
FORECASTS FOR TODAY. WE'RE CONTINUING THE MONITOR FOR HOT SPOTS ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR. WINDS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FOR
MUCH OF TONIGHT, LEADING TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S.
THIS WARM START WILL PROVIDE A NEAR IDENTICAL DAY SUNDAY FOR OUR
CWA. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED, WITH STRONGER
MIXING EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTO IOWA. DEW
POINTS MAY MIX DOWNWARD A BIT FARTHER THAN TODAY, BUT STILL HOLD IN
THE 50S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, RESULTING IN AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30% RANGE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, OUR FIRST DECENT CHANCE FOR NOTABLE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT, WITH
PWAT VALUES OF 1.3 TO 1.5" SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS REMAIN
GREATLY VARIED ON HOW THEY HANDLE THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY THE CAMS,
BUT THE ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW ROUGHLY AN 80% CHANCE FOR
GREATER THAN 0.01 FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA IN THIS PERIOD, WITH SOME 10-
20% CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF RAIN, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS TO
DUBUQUE. FOR MOST AREAS THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A DROUGHT-BUSTER,
BUT STILL, WITH CHANCES FOR 0.25 AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE QUAD
CITIES AROUND 60%, THIS IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN. WITH
THE EVENT A FEW DAYS OUT, PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER REFINEMENT.
MONDAY WILL BE A CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE DAY, AS THE FRONT WILL
BISECT THE CWA AROUND MID DAY, AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE WIDESPREAD.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST TO MID 60S NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED
FOR NOW, BUT THIS TOO COULD CHANCE WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
FRONT, AND ANY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW THAT COULD LAY ALONG IT.
WHILE NOT A HAZARDOUS PERIOD, TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL REPRESENT
ONE OF THE MORE ANTICIPATED PERIODS IN RECENT TIMES, AS WE'LL
FINALLY TURN THE AIR CONDITIONERS OFF AGAIN FOLLOWING THIS RECENT
STRETCH OF FALL HEAT. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS (50S THURS / FRI NIGHTS). OPEN UP THOSE
WINDOWS AND SAY "AHH". THAT PATTERN WILL BE BROUGHT TO US BY A
LARGE, BUT PROGRESSIVE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. LOOKING A BIT
FARTHER OUT, ABOVE NORMAL AIR IS SET TO ONCE AGAIN SPREAD OVER THE
REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. THAT PATTERN COULD FEATURE SOME THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION, AS CPC DAY 6-10 OUTLOOK SHOWS AROUND A 33% CHANCE
FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THAT PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
CLEAR/VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ONCE AGAIN,
WITH WINDS REMAINING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER
THROUGH SUNSET, AND AGAIN BY MID DAY SUNDAY, AS WINDS 10-14KTS,
GUST TO 20-25KTS. OVERNIGHT, LIGHTER WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH
AROUND 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SATURDAY OCTOBER 4TH RECORDS
BURLINGTON....91....1938
CEDAR RAPIDS..91....1938
DUBUQUE.......89....1897
MOLINE........91....2005
SUNDAY OCTOBER 5TH RECORDS
BURLINGTON....89....2007
CEDAR RAPIDS..90....2024
DUBUQUE.......87....1922
MOLINE........89....2024
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...ERVIN
CLIMATE...MCCLURE
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