203
FXUS63 KDVN 051717
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1217 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY, WARM AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR FIELD FIRES.
- RAIN IS LIKELY (60-80%) LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT, AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE EARLY FALL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, AS A DECENT EARLY FALL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO TRAVERSE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, LOW PRESSURE WAS
POSITIONED ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER ALONG A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED
FROM NORTHERN MN TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE FRONT WAS THE
DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN ANOMALOUS AND SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, AND FALL TO EARLY
WINTER TO THE WEST WITH SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS AND FROST/
FREEZE CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT 12+ HOURS AND WILL AID
IN SENDING THE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TODAY WE'LL CONTINUE TO BASK IN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS. ENHANCED MIXING, A REDUCTION IN HEIGHTS ALOFT,
AND HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TODAY WILL COMBINE
TO LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR POSSIBLY A BIT BELOW
THOSE OF YESTERDAY, BUT STILL SOLIDLY IN THE 80S. WINDS WILL
TURN GUSTY ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS 25-35+ MPH AIDED BY
MIXING AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THESE WINDS COMBINED
WITH THE VERY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER DAY OF HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY
FOR FIELD FIRES WITH AT LEAST ONE KNOWN FIELD FIRE OCCURRING
YESTERDAY. IN THESE CONDITIONS ANY SPARK IN A FIELD OR DRY
BRUSH/GRASS COULD QUICKLY START A FIRE WITH RAPID GROWTH AND
SPREAD POSSIBLE. WE WANT TO URGE EXTREME CAUTION WITH OUTDOOR
EQUIPMENT IN THE FIELDS AND STRONGLY DISCOURAGE ANY OUTDOOR
BURNING. SOME LOCAL AREAS ARE UNDER BURN BANS, SO PLEASE HEED
THOSE!
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
THE COLD FRONT WILL DECELERATE WHILE MOVING INTO CENTRAL IOWA
TONIGHT, AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY AND THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. THIS FRONT WILL
THEN SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. IT WILL LOOK TO BRING OUR FIRST DECENT CHANCE FOR
NOTABLE MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN SOME TIME WITH PROBABILITIES FOR
A WETTING RAINFALL OF AT LEAST 0.1 INCH AT 60-90%. CAMS DEPICT
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND SOME
STORMS, AS THE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WORK INTO OUR NORTH/WEST
SERVICE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER BURGEONING OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IS EXPECTED THEN
LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, AS SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT INCREASES
AIDED BY THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ATOP THE
FRONTAL ZONE. PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.3
TO 1.5 INCHES SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND POCKETS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 INCH OR MORE,
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF A DUBUQUE TO OTTUMWA AXIS WHERE
PROBABILITIES ARE 40-70% FOR AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 0.5 INCH.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY WITH THE FRONT, BUT
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIMITED AND THUS WE'RE NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SEVERE STORMS.
MONDAY WILL BE A VERY CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE DAY, AS THE FRONT
WILL BISECT THE CWA AROUND MID DAY, AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE
WIDESPREAD. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER/MID
60S NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED FOR NOW, BUT THIS TOO COULD CHANGE WITH
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT, AND ANY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW THAT
COULD LAY ALONG IT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY USHERING IN DECREASING CLOUDS WITH COOL, DRY
ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL BEGIN A STRETCH OF VERY
PLEASANT AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S/50S.
SOME ENERGY WORKING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGHS/REINFORCING COOL FRONTS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WE'LL START TO WARM BACK UP NEXT WEEKEND AND JUST BEYOND WITH
CPC'S 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK SHOWING PROBABILITIES OF 70-80% FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OCTOBER 12-18. MEANWHILE, PROBABILITIES
ARE LEANING TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE INTO EASTERN IOWA LATE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN, VFR SKIES WILL DOMINATE, WITH
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25KTS. AFTER SUNSET, THESE WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS, WITH SOME THREAT FOR LLWS AGAIN,
ESPECIALLY NEAR MLI TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS, AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
NEAR CID AND DBQ, WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT FOG EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNRISE THERE, AND DRY AT MLI AND BRL. MONDAY, THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, WITH A
THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 18Z MONDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED MVFR CIGS NEAR
2000FT, ESPECIALLY NEAR CID MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SUNDAY OCTOBER 5TH RECORDS
BURLINGTON....89....2007
CEDAR RAPIDS..90....2024
DUBUQUE.......87....1922
MOLINE........89....2024
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...ERVIN
CLIMATE...MCCLURE
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