129
FXUS63 KDVN 061839
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
139 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE BEST THIS EVENING AND THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH LARGELY <0.50" EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WORK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH TODAY, LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND, WE MAY SEE ANOTHER WARMUP
THROUGH THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
AFTER A LULL IN RAINFALL IN THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, WE WILL
START TO SEE CONVECTION BLOSSOM OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY PASSING THROUGH WILL STILL BE OVER A PORTION OF
OUR AREA, WITH A WEAKER LLJ PUMPING INTO IT. THUS, PLENTY OF FORCING
TO FAVOR A PERIOD OF REPEATING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS, OWING TO FAIRLY WEAK
INSTABILITY. RATHER, WE WILL JUST HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
INTRODUCE LIGHTNING. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN AFTER SUNSET, CURRENTLY LOOKING TO DEVELOP
IN AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT, CLEARING MUCH OF THE
AREA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. OVERALL, LIGHT RAIN ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED OUT OF THIS, WITH MOST SEEING AROUND 0.25-0.50". BEST
CHANCES FOR THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE WILL LARGELY BE ALONG A
LINE FROM FREEPORT IL TO FAIRFIELD IA. OTHERWISE, WE WILL BE
DEALING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
UPPER 40S IN OUR NORTHWEST TO MID 50S IN OUR SOUTHEAST.
TOMORROW, WE ARE IN FOR QUITE THE CHANGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
REMNANT SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTH/EAST EARLY IN THE MORNING, BUT MUCH OF
THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVED OUT BY 10AM-12PM LOCAL TIME. POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS THEN PUSHES IN, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING, WITH MOST REMAINING IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL ALSO BE SEEN,
WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. WE ARE LOOKING TOWARDS QUITE A
BEAUTIFUL AND COOLER FALL EVENING TOMORROW!
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE, ALONG WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL
LARGELY KEEP UPPER LEVEL FLOW NORTHWESTERLY. GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
WEAK WAVES PASSING ALONG THE TOP OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. ALTHOUGH,
MOISTURE WILL BE SEVERELY LACKING. THUS, WE ARE EXPECTING TO REMAIN
LARGELY DRY AS THIS PASSES, BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THIS WILL GENERALLY PASS THROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
FOR NOW, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE A DRY FORECAST WITH PASSING
CLOUDS. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS, WITH WIDESPREAD 60S/70S.
THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND, THE STORY REMAINS THE SAME SINCE LAST
FORECAST PACKAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE RIDGE AMPLIFY OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND SHIFT EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MORE WARM ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION, INCREASING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. THE CPC FAVORS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THUS, IT LOOKS LIKE
THE 80S MIGHT RETURN AGAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING ALONG THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
SEEN AFTER 03Z, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FROM 18Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. LOWER CIGS AND VIS CAN BE
SEEN IN THE SHOWERS/STORMS, WITH CIGS DOWN TO 1000-2000 FT OR
LESS AND VIS BETWEEN 3-5 SM. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT, DECREASING IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
06Z. WINDS WILL LARGELY BE NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY AROUND 10
KTS. THUS, WHILE WE WILL SEE LONG PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS, WE
WILL SEE OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 00-12Z.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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