010
FXUS63 KDVN 071715
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1215 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ALTHOUGH THE RISK IS VERY LOW (<10% PROBABILITY), VERY
ISOLATED PATCHY FROST MAY OCCUR TONIGHT IN FAVORED COLD AREAS
IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
- A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WORK WEEK WITH
A NEW WARM-UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.
- WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND LATE NEXT WEEKEND,
ANOTHER DRY WEEK IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
LIFT OCCURRING ACROSS THE COLD FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND IT. BASED ON REPORTS FROM
MESONET WEATHER STATIONS, RAINFALL IS GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER
INCH BUT SOME ISOLATED AREAS HAVE SEEN AMOUNTS OVER ONE HALF INCH.
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE THE LIFT ACROSS THE FRONT WILL
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AND END THE RAIN RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
LATE-MORNING. CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL BE
SEEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL QUITE
CHILLY COMPARED TO LATE, THEY ARE IN FACT VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY OCTOBER.
TONIGHT, CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLEAR
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES RAISES THE QUESTION OF
FROST POTENTIAL. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH,
FAVORED COLD AREAS IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI, HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME VERY ISOLATED PATCHY
FROST AROUND SUNRISE.
AT THIS TIME THERE ARE NO PLANS FOR ANY FROST HEADLINES FOR
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING GIVEN THE LOW RISK AND VERY SHORT TIME
FRAME.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ASSESSMENT...VERY HIGH (>90%) CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
THURSDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...LOW (20%) CONFIDENCE ON RAIN
RETURN FLOW ALOFT WILL SIGNAL THE START OF ANOTHER WARM-UP FOR THE
AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
WORK WITH WHAT MOISTURE THAT IS PRESENT TO POSSIBLY GENERATE SOME
RAIN. THIS FAR OUT THE SIGNAL IS WEAK BUT IT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS YIELDS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH AREAS
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI FAVORED. THUS WHILE THERE IS A RISK OF RAIN,
THERE IS AN 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ASSESSMENT...A NEAR CERTAINTY (>98%) OF WARMER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS
THE GLOBAL MODELS REBUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST FOR
THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE HEADING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER. THE DOWNSIDE IS THAT DRY CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO BE SEEN.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ASSESSMENT...A NEAR CERTAINTY (>98%) OF WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOW (20-30%) CONFIDENCE OF RAIN.
THE WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NEW WORK
WEEK WHILE THE RETURN FLOW ALOFT BECOMES QUITE STRONG AND THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT RESPECTABLE. HOWEVER, THERE AREA A FEW UNKNOWN
VARIABLES. THE PRIMARY ONE IS THE AMOUNT OF MIXING THAT OCCURS
DURING THE DAY. IF THE MIXING IS DEEP ENOUGH THEN MOISTURE LEVELS
WOULD LOWER, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY. THE LOWERING OF MOISTURE
LEVELS BRINGS INTO QUESTION THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS CURRENTLY YIELDS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
DAY MONDAY WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PICTURE, WHILE RAIN IS POSSIBLE, IT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY IN NATURE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SKC WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, REMAINING FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST, AND THEN TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page