100
FXUS63 KDVN 080747
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
247 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FROST MAY OCCUR TONIGHT WITH AREAS NORTH OF I-80
FAVORED.
- A NEW WARM-UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COMMENCE THIS
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW (20%) RISK OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT,
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
THERE IS A GREATER PROBABILITY OF DRY CONDITIONS THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
SUNNY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
TONIGHT ANOTHER QUIET AND VERY CHILLY NIGHT WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE FROST POTENTIAL.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLER (WHICH IS TYPICAL; THE SECOND NIGHT
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS USUALLY THE COOLEST). MIXING THAT
OCCURRED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE (EVIDENT WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 20S). SUNSET
WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO REBOUND BUT IT CONCEIVABLY
COULD END UP BEING TOO DRY FOR ANY FROST FORMATION. THUS FOR NOW
WILL ONLY INCLUDE A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE MAY
OR MAY NOT SHED ADDITIONAL LIGHT REGARDING THE NEED FOR ANY FROST
HEADLINES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ASSESSMENT...HIGH CONFIDENCE (>80%) OF ANOTHER WARM-UP STARTING
NEXT WEEKEND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
WARM-UP DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE OVERALL WAA FORCING
IS WEAK. PROGGED PROFILES OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOW LARGE AMOUNTS OF
DRY AIR. THUS WHAT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE COULD END UP GOING INTO
PRODUCING JUST CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ASSESSMENT...A NEAR CERTAINTY (>99%) OF WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOW (20%) CONFIDENCE ON RAIN POTENTIAL
THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE MIDWEST. THE
QUESTION IS THE RAIN POTENTIAL.
FROM THE LARGE SCALE PICTURE, THE GULF IS CUT-OFF SO ANY MOISTURE
BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA IS COMING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE FORCING ALSO LOOKS WEAK.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS GENERATING 20 PERCENT POPS WITH THE FAVORED
AREA BEING MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THIS AREA MAKES SENSE AS
IT IS CLOSER TO THE RELATIVELY STRONGER TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
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