119
FXUS63 KDVN 202355
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
655 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY, WITH WINDS
POTENTIALLY REACHING 40+ MPH
- SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
- WIDESPREAD FROST, OR A FREEZE IN SOME SPOTS, IS POSSIBLE, MOST
LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY AS WE
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW, CURRENTLY
SITUATED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS LOW HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH, WHICH CAN BE SEEN OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON PER THE GOES-EAST MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS
TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN
25 TO 35+ MPH FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT CHANCES (40-70+ PERCENT) OF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THE
HREF ENSEMBLE SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF SUFFICIENT SATURATION IN
THE 800-600 MB LAYER (ALTHOUGH BRIEF), WITH SOMEWHAT DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT, WITH THE HREF PROBABILITY-MATCHED MEAN
QPF SUGGESTING TOTALS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, BUT THIS AMOUNT COULD BE EXCEEDED OVER NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
POST-FRONTAL, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN,
LEADING TO ANOTHER WINDY DAY TUESDAY, WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH
OR STRONGER ON TUESDAY, AS BOTH THE LREF AND HREF ENSEMBLE
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES OF 40 MPH ARE 50 TO 70%, AND THE BEST
OVERLAP BETWEEN EACH ENSEMBLE REMAINS OVER OUR WEST-CENTRAL CWA,
ALONG THE I-380 CORRIDOR. GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR STRONGER WOULD WARRANT
A WIND ADVISORY, AND THAT APPEARS TO BE POSSIBLE, ALBEIT MOST LIKELY
IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA AROUND BUCHANAN COUNTY, SO WE
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THAT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IT WILL
DEFINITELY FEEL MORE FALL-LIKE TUESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY, WITH HIGHS
ONLY WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
WINDS WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT BUT COULD STILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY, WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT. A LOBE OF PVA IS PROGGED TO
PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS (20-
40%), BUT LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
MID-WEEK: EXPECT A PERIOD OF CHILLY CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
CONTINUING TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP TO THE 30S, WITH SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THIS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST, AND EVEN A FREEZE IN
SOME SPOTS. THE NBM PROBABILITIES OF 32 DEGREES F OR COLDER
NIGHTTIME LOWS ARE REACHING BETWEEN 40 TO 60% FOR SOME SPOTS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. THE MODEL TRENDS SO FAR
HAS SUGGESTED THAT WIDESPREAD FROST WILL BE LIKELY, WITH PERHAPS A
FEW SPOTS SEEING A HARD FREEZE.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND: A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FRIDAY, LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE, BUT IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF AT LEAST SOME LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%) OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IOWA TAF
SITES TURNING THE WINDS TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS THIS
EVENING UP TO 22 KNOTS BEFORE DECREASE TO AROUND 12 KNOTS AFTER
04 UTC. SHOWERS AND LATE RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WILL
IMPACT MAINLY KCID, KDBQ, AND KMLI THROUGH 4 UTC WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12
UTC TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER
18 UTC.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...COUSINS
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