715
FXUS63 KDVN 211515
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1015 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS TODAY WITH A WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
- WIDESPREAD FROST, OR EVEN A FREEZE IN SOME SPOTS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
- TRENDING MILDER AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SPOTTY PRECIP
CHANCES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
OBSERVATIONS IN FAR NORTHERN IOWA ALREADY HITTING GUSTS OF
35-40 KNOTS. THAT COMBINED WITH PROGGED INVERTED V SOUNDINGS,
STEEP LAPSE RATES, 925MB WINDS 40-45 KNOTS AND GEOSTROPHIC WINDS
45 KNOTS WITH BURSTS TO 50 KNOTS POINTS TO EXPANDING THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-80. ADDITIONALLY WINDS
LOOK TO REMAIN UP INTO THE EVENING SO THE WIND ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL 10 PM.
HRRR TRENDS SHOW POCKETS OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HREF PROBABILITIES OF 40 KNOTS OR HIGHER
ARE AT LEAST 50 PERCENT ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 WITH SOME AREAS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 OVER 70 PERCENT.
THE INCOMING LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD TEMPER THE WINDS AND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ANY RESPECTABLE SHOWER WOULD BE
ABLE TO PULL DOWN THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT AND CREATE
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
TODAY...NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE ROLLS EAST-SOUTHEASTWRAD
INTO THE GRT LKS THROUGH THIS EVENING, INDUCING A WIND MACHINE AT
THE SFC ON IT'S SOUTHWESTERN FLANK. TIGHTNESS OF LLVL GRADIENT,
VERTICAL MIXING AND WIND PROFILES ON SEVERAL MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS
AND BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOW MUCH OF THE CWA TO EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED
WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 20 TO 27 MPH AND GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH.
THE HIGHER END CATEGORIES ON THE LATEST SHORTER RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE
SUGGESTED TO LAY OUT ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OR EVEN A BIT MORE
BY MID AFTERNOON, LASTING THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE RELAXING JUST A
BIT INTO THE EARLY WED MORNING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN 5 COUNTIES OF THE CWA FOR NOW, AND THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE EXPENDED SOME SOUTH AND/OR EAST DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
AND MIXING LIMITATIONS. DESPITE DRYNESS THROUGH SOME OF THE COLUMN,
TIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW WITH EMBEDDED VORT WINGS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUGGEST ISO;LATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS TO DIURNALLY DEVELOP IN THE CU
AND STRATOCU FIELDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, MOST NUMEROUS COVERAGE
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 OR THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE DVN CWA.
INVERTED-V PROFILES ON THE FCST SOUNDINGS UP TO H85 MB OR HIGHER
SUGGEST THAT SOME ENHANCED PRECIP LOADING/ENHANCED WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE UNDER THE PASSING SHOWERS UP TO 45 KTS. CLOUD COVER AND CAA
TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S, WITH SOME AREAS IN THE NORTH POSSIBLY
BEING HELD IN THE 40S...A MORE TYPICAL BLUSTERY FALL DAY FOR LATER
OCTOBER.
TONIGHT...THE LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT MAINTAINS ENOUGH, ALONG WITH
WRAP AROUND STRATOCU(UNTIL LATE) TO KEEP MIXING WINDS AND A TEMP
BOTTOM OUT FOR FROST PRODUCTION AT BAY, BUT BY 12Z WED AMBIENT TEMPS
STILL TO COOL DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S TO UPPER 30S, WITH A FEW SPOTS
IN THE WEST NEARING THE MID 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CLEAR BUT COLD RIDGING TO BE THE STORY FOR
THE MID WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS WELL DOWN
IN THE 30S. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S, THUS A FROST HEADLINE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO
EARLY THU MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THU NIGHT INTO FRI AM WITH A
QUICK DROP IN TEMPS WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS MAY GET
INTO THE LOWER 30S OR EVEN UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD TO
HALF OF THE DVN CWA BEFORE THE RIDGE PULLS AWAY ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
LIGHT RETURN FLOW. CLOUD COVER OFF A SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS SYSTEM MAY
ALSO HELP OUT THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA FROM BOTTOMING OUT AS COLD AS THE
NORTHEAST, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD GET FROST AGAIN.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COMPLEX AND WEAKLY BOCKED PATTERN INDICATED
ON THE LATEST SUITE OF ENSEMBLES ACRS THE MID CONUS THIS PERIOD
MAKING FOR LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY HAPPEN. WE MAY
HAVE MODERATING TEMPS BACK TO THE MILDER SIDE OF THINGS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR OVER THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY PRECIP CHANCES
DEPENDING ON THE REACH OF A HELD UP SOUTHERLY FLOW SYSTEM TRYING TO
MIGRATE EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GULF STATES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD
PUMP SFC WIND GUSTS TO 30-40 KTS BY MIDDAY AND ESPECIALLY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST GUSTS AT CID AND DBQ WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY IS ONGOING OR CLOSE BY. WRAP AROUND STRATOCU AS WELL
AS AMBIENT CU FORMATION WILL MAKE FOR A BKN TO OVC DECK AT MOST
SITES EXCEPT MAYBE FOR BRL BY EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT AM BANKING
THEM TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR BUT THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR AT DBQ.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCTRD LIGHT SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE PASSING BOUTS OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. ALSO WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS, THESE SHOWERS COULD MIX
DOWN ENHANCED VARIABLE GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS. THE WINDS WILL LAST
INTO THE EVENING BUT BECOME NOT QUITE AS GUSTY AFTER 02-03Z OR
SO. CLEARING OUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES INTO EARLY WED MORNING.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ040>042-
051>054-065-066-068.
IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018.
MO...NONE.
UPDATE...08
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12
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