559
FXUS63 KDVN 220542
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1242 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
..06Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WIND SPEEDS
SLOWLY DECREASE.
- THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR FROST AND/OR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
- NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
THEN A BRIEF WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A POTENTIALLY
STRONG STORM SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
GENERALLY NORTH OF A BELLE PLAINE, IA TO ALEDO, IL LINE FOLLOWED BY
DRY CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SLACKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE
MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ASSESSMENT...DRY WITH A MEDIUM (50%) CONFIDENCE FOR FROST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT INCREASES TO HIGH (80%) CONFIDENCE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
BRINGING MUCH LOWER WIND SPEEDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE DOWN SIDE IS
THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND/OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES,
WHICH CLIMATOLOGICALLY IS PAST DUE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CURRENT PROBABILITY OF FROST IS 50 PERCENT FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED
SHELTERED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. THURSDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING
VERY FAVORABLE FOR FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT WITH THE HIGH RIGHT OVER THE AREA.
FROST HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. IF THE CURRENT TREND WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE, THEN THE PROBABILITY IS VERY HIGH (>90%) THAT HEADLINES
FOR FROST/FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ASSESSMENT...LOW (<25%) CONFIDENCE ON RAIN CHANCES
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME BEING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
HEIGHT ANOMALIES DEVELOPING IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
SUGGESTING A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING FROM MICHIGAN INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY, THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SUGGESTS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. IF THIS
SCENARIO DOES OCCUR, THEN THE SYSTEM FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WILL MOVE SLOWER AND WOULD HAVE A 60-70 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF
PASSING WELL SOUTH AND LEAVING THE AREA COMPLETELY DRY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ASSESSMENT...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A STRONG SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE MIDWEST. LOW (<30%) CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF SAID
SYSTEM.
THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DISAGREE ON THE OVERALL
TIMING. THE DISAGREEMENT IS MOST LIKELY TIED TO HOW QUICKLY THE REX
BLOCK FROM THE WEEKEND BREAKS DOWN.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS SUGGESTING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING BEING DRY.
THE GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME AS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. HERE THE MODEL
CONSENSUS CURRENTLY HAS RAIN CHANCES AT 35-55 PERCENT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
LOW VFR TO MVFR STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACRS THE DBQ AND
EDGE THE MLI TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD UNTIL WED
EVENING CLEAR OUT. CID MAY GET CLIPPED BY A DEVELOPING AND THEN
PASSING MVFR DECK WED MORNING BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO SCTRD OR
SKC. TIGHT ENOUGH LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT HANGING ON TO KEEP
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WINDS GOING UNTIL LATE WED
AFTERNOON.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...12
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