449
FXUS63 KDVN 221712
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1212 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY COOLER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY, BEFORE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
BY THIS EVENING.
- COLD TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S. A
FEW UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED COLD AIR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS. THUS WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION AND A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TONIGHT. MORE FROST AND EVEN SOME FREEZE IN LINE
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
TODAY...LARGE CYCLONE COMPLEX ACRS THE GRT LKS WILL MAINTAIN DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS THE MID AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY MAKING FOR
ANOTHER WINDY DAY TODAY WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35+ MPH AT TIMES. HIGH
TEMPS KEPT MAINLY IN THE 50S, AND IF THE WRAP AROUND CLOUD CONVEYOR
MAINTAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD
OF THE DVN CWA, SOME AREAS IN FAR NW IL MAY BE KEPT IN THE UPPER
40S. SOME AMBIENT CELLULAR CU MAY POP DIURNALLY ON THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THE ONGOING DECK AS WELL, BUT THEY WILL ERODE AGAIN QUICKER BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING SUBSIDENCE.
TONIGHT...BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST FOR
CLEARING AND SFC WIND DECOUPLE. DRY DPTS ALREADY IN PLACE AND
RADIATIVE SET-UP SPELLS WIDESPREAD FROST WITH TEMPS COOLING DOWN
INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S. EVEN SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN A FEW
COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. FROST HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THURSDAY A SUNNY CLASSIC LATER OCTOBER DAY
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. TEMPS
TO CRASH SHARPLY AFTER SUNSET THU EVENING, AND H85 MB COLD RIDGE
RULE SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF A SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM TO AFFECT LOW TEMP
POTENTIAL SOME ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SOUTHWEST, BUT A DECENT CHANCE
FOR THE NEED OF A FREEZE WARNING ACRS AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST THIRD
OR MORE OF THE DVN CWA INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST SUITE
OF MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A JUMBLED REX BLOCK
DEVELOPMENT ACRS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND. TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THIS PROCESS, ENOUGH RETURN FLOW, SUNSHINE, AND
MODERATING THICKNESSES TO HELP FRIDAY HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S ACRS MOST OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONTINUED EVOLUTION OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN
AND MODELS PICKING UP ON THE STRENGTH OF THE GRT LKS RIDGE PORTION
OF THE BLOCK WILL PROBABLY KEEP MOST OR ALL OF THE FCST AREA DRY
THIS WEEKEND WITH PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER(BL) FLOW ACRS THE AREA. THIS FLOW USUALLY NOT THE WARMEST OF
SITUATIONS FOR THE LOCAL AREA, BUT CONTINUED TEMP MODERATION AND
SUNSHINE COULD MAKE FOR A DECENT LATE OCTOBER WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD INCREASES INTO A
CONTINUE MESSY BLOCK OR PARTIAL BLOCK EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, AGAIN
MAKING FOR LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS JUNCTURE OF WHAT WILL OCCUR. BUT
THE TRENDS ARE FOR A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM ACRS THE PLAINS AND
GULF STATES, WITH MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE LOCAL AREA
ESPECIALLY IF THE FAVORED ECMWF BLEND HAS IT'S WAY. DEFINITELY SOME
DEEPER UPPER WAVE ENERGY OUT THERE TO DEAL WITH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
WRAP AROUND MVFR CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AND SHOULD
EXIT EASTERN IOWA AND MOST OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY 00Z/23. AT
THE SAME TIME WINDS WILL SLOWLY RAMP DOWN. AFTER 00Z/23 VFR
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS DROPPING UNDER 10 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE IS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF FROST DEVELOPING ON THE WINGS OF UN-HANGARED
AIRCRAFT TONIGHT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08
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