971
FXUS63 KDVN 230523
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1223 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
..06Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A MOUNT CARROLL, IL TO BELLE PLAINE, IA LINE. THE
PROBABILITY IS VERY HIGH (>95%) THAT FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- A BRIEF WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- LOW PROBABILITY FOR RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN LOOKS TO BE JUST BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
BRISK WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
DROPPING TO 5-10 MPH AFTER SUNSET.
AREAS LONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MOUNT CARROLL, IL TO BELLE
PLAINE, IA. CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DROPPING OFF SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN SHELTERED AREAS.
URBAN AREAS MAY REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
SUNNY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
|
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
ASSESSMENT...VERY HIGH (>95%) CONFIDENCE OF A WIDESPREAD FREEZE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE COLD CANADIAN HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY BRINGING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER
SUNSET. FREEZE WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THOSE
AREAS THAT DO NOT FREEZE WILL LIKELY HAVE ANOTHER NIGHT OF FROST
HEADLINES. THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ROUGHLY 7-14 DAYS PAST THE
NORMAL DATES DEPENDING UPON THE LOCATION.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ASSESSMENT...LOW (<25%) CONFIDENCE ON RAIN OCCURRING
THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO HAVE 15-25 PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE TREND OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS BEEN TO SLOWLY LOWER BOTH THE RAIN CHANCES AND AREAL
COVERAGE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THIS LOWERING TREND MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE TRENDS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DEVELOP A REX BLOCK FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE
SAME TIME THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN IS SUGGESTING A LONG WAVE TROF
DEVELOPING ON THE EAST COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF BOTH FEATURES WOULD SLOW OR DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM AND HAVE A TENDENCY TO PUSH IT FURTHER SOUTH. INDEED
THE OVERALL TREND OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
FROM THE MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN TO GET STRONGER (I.E. HIGHER ANOMALOUS
HEIGHTS) WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SHUNTING THE NEXT SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH
AND TOWARD THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF ON THE EAST COAST.
THUS WHILE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS 15-25 PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN,
THERE IS A 75 PERCENT PROBABILITY THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
THROUGH SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ASSESSMENT...MEDIUM (40-60%) CONFIDENCE ON SOME RAIN CLOSER TO
MID-WEEK
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED REX BLOCK BREAKS DOWN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS VARY ON HOW QUICKLY THE
BLOCK BREAKS DOWN. THE DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROF ALONG THE EAST
COAST HAS A 60-80 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF KEEPING THE FIRST SYSTEM
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THERE ARE, HOWEVER, MEMBERS OF THE VARIOUS
GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLES THAT BRING THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH. THIS
EXPLAINS THE 20-25 PERCENT CHANCE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
INTERESTING THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CHANGED SCENARIOS REGARDING THE
SECOND SYSTEM. THE NEW FLAVOR NOW IS FOR A WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE WIDE SPREAD OF TIME RANGE IS ALSO RELATED
TO HOW QUICKLY THE REX BLOCK FROM THE WEEKEND BREAKS DOWN.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS 'APPEARS' TO BE CONVERGING ON THE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME FOR THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN. HERE THE
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN.
THE DECAYING BLOCKING PATTERN WILL DICTATE HOW FAST THE CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS
AND THE RATE OF DECAY OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE HELPS EXPLAIN THE 30-40
PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACRS THE AREA WILL MAKE FOR A VFR TAF
CYCLE THROUGH THU EVENING. WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 10-15
KTS BY LATE THU MORNING MAY HAVE SOME TEMPORARY GUSTS, BUT THEN
THE SFC WINDS SHOULD REALLY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH STRAY PATCHES OF AC AND MAYBE SOME
AMBIENT CELLULAR CU FORMATION OF FEW-SCT IN THE DBQ VCNTY BY
MIDDAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ040>042-
051>054-063>066.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ067-068-
076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ001-002-007.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ009-015>018-
024>026-034-035.
MO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...12
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