860
FXUS63 KDVN 231708
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1208 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES WRAPPING UP THIS MORNING, THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZE WARNINGS NEEDED FOR TONIGHT FOR MORE
OF THE AREA.
- A MARGINAL WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SPOTTY NUISANCE PRECIP
CHANCES HANGING ON.
- A MORE DEFINED AND ORGANIZED SYSTEM MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN JUST BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
TODAY...WILL OF COURSE LET FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES RIDE THIS MORNING.
SOME UPPER 20S WILL OCCUR IN THE COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80, AND WIND CHILLS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
UPSTREAM SFC AND UPPER RIDGING ACRS THE MID TO UPPER MO RVR VALLEY
THEN SLATED TO SLIDE ACRS THE REGION TODAY FOR ONGOING FAIR WX
REGIME WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60. 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS WILL PUT A BIT OF AN EDGE ON THE TEMPS
AS WELL, BEFORE THE SFC WINDS TREND LIGHTER BY LATE AFTERNOON. SUNNY
TODAY WITH A FEW TO SCTRD AMBIENT CU DEVELOPING ACRS THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA BY AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...WITH LOW/DRY SFC DPTS IN PLACE AND SFC WIND DROP OFF,
EXPECT TEMPS TO CRASH SHARPLY AFTER SUNSET. H85 MB COLD RIDGE RULE
SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, EXCEPT IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW TO MID 30S MAY BE MORE PREVALENT. SOME
CHANCE FOR SOME COLD AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS OF THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TO DIP TOWARD THE MID 20S IF SFC DPTS CAN DRY-DOWN MIX
THAT LOW. HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING BUT FOR MUCH MORE OF
THE AREA TONIGHT, ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN CLUSTER OF COUNTIES. TO
AVOID MORE HEADLINE MESS AND INTERMIX WITH THE CURRENT ONGOING ONES
AND NEW ONES TONIGHT, HAVE NOT ISSUED A NEW FROST ADVISORY IN THE
COUNTIES WITHOUT A FREEZE HEADLINE FOR NOW. WILL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE
THAT DECISION AFTER THE CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...CONTINUED EVOLUTION OF A MESSY BLOCKING PATTERN
STILL INDICATED BY THE LATEST SUITE OF ENSEMBLES TO CONTINUE TO
MIGRATE EASTWARD ACRS THE MID CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BESIDES
SOME HIGH CLOUDS, FRIDAY LOOKS NICE AND MODERATING TEMP-WISE FOR
LATE OCTOBER. BUT THEN CONTINUED MODEL VARIABILITY WITH THE GRT LKS
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF RIDGING OFF THE BLOCK MAKE FOR LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIP CHANCES AND PLACEMENT FOR SAT AND SUNDAY, WITH
A FEW SOLUTIONS TRENDING A BIT WETTER(AND COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND
SPOTTY PRECIP) AS A SHORT WAVE ALOFT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS MAKES MORE HEADWAY OVERHEAD, AS
WELL AS EVENTUAL INTERPLAY WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS/STREAM WAVE LATER IN
THE WEEKEND. STILL THINK DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AND
THERE WILL BE MANY MORE DRY HOURS THAN NOT THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST OF
THE LOCAL FCST AREA. WITHE POTENTIALLY MORE CLOUD COVER, WILL TREND
BACK HIGH TEMPS A BIT FROM THE BLEND FROM PREVIOUS DAYS MILD
VALUES...MAY BE MORE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 INSTEAD OF LOW TO MID
60S.
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR NEXT WEEK, BUT
HAMMERING OUT A GENERAL IDEA LOOKING AT LATEST UPPER JET PATTERN
TRENDS AND INCOMING EASTERN PACIFIC WAVES SUGGEST NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH AN EVENTUAL PIECE OF
PACIFIC NW WAVE ENERGY STRIVING INLAND ENOUGH TO BRING SHOWER
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
WINDS TO BE 10-12 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
AFTER SUNSET LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH THE HIGH MOVING OVER
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. UN-HANGARED AIRCRAFT WILL SEE
FROST ON THE WINGS BY SUNRISE. AFTER 12Z/24 WINDS WILL REMAIN
UNDER 10 KNOTS AND SLOWLY BECOME SOUTHEAST.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-088-089.
IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-035.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08
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