225
FXUS63 KDVN 240516
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1216 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINING IOWA AND ILLINOIS COUNTIES WITH A FROST
ADVISORY FOR SCOTLAND AND CLARK COUNTIES IN MISSOURI.
- TEMPERATURES ONLY APPROACHING NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
- LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES ARE
SLIGHTLY BETTER TOWARD MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 827 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
THE FREEZE IS LOOKING CONFIDENT! HERE'S A 30 MINUTE DVN ASOS
PLAY BY PLAY...
800 PM OB 42 F. 815 PM 36F. 825 PM 34 F! (WINDS WENT FROM 4 KTS
TO CALM IN THIS SHORT PERIOD)
WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, DRY DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 30S,
AND A LONG MID-FALL NIGHT AHEAD, WE'RE GOING TO SPEND MANY HOURS
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A SEASON ENDING FREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE AREA.
ON FRIDAY, CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HIGH
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ASSESSMENT...LOW (<20%) CONFIDENCE ON RAIN CHANCES
NEW DATA CONFIRMS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGWAVE TROF ALONG THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM APPROACHING
THIS WEEKEND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A REX BLOCK. GIVEN THE DEVELOPING
EAST COAST LONGWAVE TROF, THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL FAVOR HEADING
TOWARD THE TROF ON THE EAST COAST. HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE AREA ARE
MINIMAL WHICH ARE NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN OCCURRING.
INTERESTINGLY, THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS
GLOBAL MODELS THAT BRING SOME RAIN INTO THE AREA. THE DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF EVEN HAS A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS.
UNDER THE HOOD THE VARIOUS MODELS DO SHOW RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST
AIR LIFTING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, FORECAST VERTICAL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAT ARE SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET
DEEP THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS THE
RETURN MOISTURE POTENTIALLY COULD GO INTO MAINLY CLOUD FORMATION
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE VIRGA OR SPRINKLES.
RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS 20-35 PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE 'RELATIVELY' BETTER RAIN
CHANCES SOUTH OF I-80. THESE RAIN CHANCES ARE COMING FROM THE FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT HAVE THE BLOCKING
PATTERN WEAKER THAN THE INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ASSESSMENT...LOW TO MEDIUM (30-40%) CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN
THE KEY TO THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY IS HOW QUICKLY THE BLOCKING
PATTERN BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOW SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST
LONGWAVE TROF.
HERE THE MODELS ARE MIXED ON HOW QUICKLY THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS
DOWN FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME SOLUTIONS HOLD ONTO THE BLOCK THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE BREAKING IT DOWN WHILE OTHERS BREAK IT DOWN ON SUNDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM, HOWEVER, WILL FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK TOWARD
THE EAST COAST TROF. THE VERTICAL PROFILES STILL SHOW SOME DRY AIR
IN PLACE AND THE SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DRY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION.
AS A RESULT, THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE BETTER FORCING FROM THE SYSTEM ARRIVES. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN.
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANY RAIN FROM THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MOST AREAS DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT, TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. STILL, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT ON FRIDAY, GENERALLY AROUND 5 KNOTS, ALONG WITH SOME
HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS FILTERING IN.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ040>042-
051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ009-010.
UPDATE...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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