942
FXUS63 KDVN 241110
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
610 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING,
WITH THE FREEZE WARNING/FROST ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT
THROUGH 9 AM
- TEMPERATURES BECOME MORE SEASONAL TODAY, LASTING THROUGH MID-WEEK
NEXT WEEK
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-50%) OF RAIN REMAINS IN THE PICTURE
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A BETTER SIGNAL FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER MOST OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH 08Z/3 AM TEMPERATURE READINGS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE WARMEST SPOTS
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CWA NEAR KEOKUK AND FORT
MADISON, WHERE READINGS ARE STILL AROUND THE MIDDLE 30S. STILL,
WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD, LEADING TO
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, EXPECT THESE TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO FALL EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
THIS WILL OFFICIALLY MARK THE END OF THE LOCAL GROWING SEASON,
MEANING WE WILL LIKELY BE FINISHED WITH FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
AFTER THIS MORNING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY BUT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE (AROUND 5-10 MPH).
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS BLOWING OFF OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD
SLOWLY INFILTRATE THE SKIES TODAY, WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE 24.00Z HREF ENSEMBLE
SOUNDINGS SHOW LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SUB-CLOUD
LAYER BELOW 800 MB, SO MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE HARD TO COME,
MORE LIKELY BECOMING VIRGA OR SPRINKLES.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION,
WITH HIGHS TODAY WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, AND LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH THE REGION, MAKING FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY WEEKEND. THE NBM
CONTINUES TO HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND 20-40% FOR THE
WEEKEND, WITH MINIMAL AMOUNTS EXPECTED THANKS TO LINGERING DRY AIR
IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THE LATEST LREF ENSEMBLE EXCEEDANCE
PROBABILITIES OF TOTAL RAINFALL OF 0.1 INCHES OR GREATER ARE AROUND
40-70% THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND (HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS OUR
SOUTH), SO NOT A GREAT SIGNAL FOR A WETTING RAINFALL.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT
ACTIVE AS A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK.
THIS SHOULD HELP BUILD A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS, ALTHOUGH LREF ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS VARIOUS
SPATIAL SOLUTIONS TO THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH, WITH SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS PLACING IT OVER OUR REGION AND OTHERS FARTHER EAST. IF THE
TROUGH IS MORE OVER OUR REGION, WE WOULD SEE HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, BUT IF THE TROUGH IS MORE TO THE EAST, THEN WE WILL LIKELY
SEE LESS RAINFALL AMOUNTS. GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES, UNCERTAIN
REMAINS PRETTY HIGH FOR HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE, AND THE LREF
PROBABILITIES OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR GREATER OF TOTAL RAINFALL
DOESN'T PROVIDE MUCH CLARITY, WITH VALUES AROUND 40 TO 60 PERCENT
(HIGHEST TO THE WEST) FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY, DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH SHUNTS OFF TO THE EAST. THE NBM DOESN'T HAVE MUCH
FOR POPS DURING THIS PERIOD, WHICH SUGGESTS THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLES ARE SIMILAR TO THEIR DETERMINISTIC COUNTERPARTS, WHICH
KEEP CONDITIONS LARGELY DRY FOR THIS PERIOD. AGAIN, MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MONDAY/TUESDAY LONGWAVE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH HIGHS LARGELY IN THE UPPER 50S, AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S, WITH PERHAPS A TREND TOWARDS COOLER LOWS BY MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SOME EARLY MORNING MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED AROUND BRL. FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A POOR HOLD ON THIS FOG, SO LARGE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW LONG IT WILL LAST THERE. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 5 KNOTS, ALONG WITH SOME
HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS FILTERING IN.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ040>042-
051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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