074
FXUS63 KDVN 251042
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
542 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
- WE WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
WE WILL START THE WEEKEND MOSTLY CLOUDY, WITH A SOME LOW-END CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ACTIVE, WHERE WE WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN TWO WAVES. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE DIGGING IN FROM
THE NORTH, WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY JUST SKIMMING OUR NORTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS IS COVERED WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLIGHT POPS, LARGELY IN OUR NORTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW OVERALL ON SEEING PRECIPITATION. WHILE THAT WAVE PASSES
THROUGH THE NORTH, WE WILL ALSO HAVE A WAVE SLOWLY PUSH OFF OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, TRACKING EASTERLY. AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE, WE HAVE SEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN.
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THESE RETURNS ARE LARGELY JUST
CLOUDS, WITH FEW SITES INDICATING A DRIZZLE. THE STORY SHOULD
REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE QUITE THE LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK. THUS,
WE WILL LARGELY CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUDS AND VIRGA, BUT A BRIEF
SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH TODAY. WITH CONFIDENCE LOW
ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WE OPTED TO CUT POPS. OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
50S.
ENERGY FROM THESE WAVES LARGELY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT,
BRINGING ALONG A QUIET NIGHT THROUGHOUT. THUS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION. WHILE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
LATER IN THE NIGHT, WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
NIGHT, MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
WAVE THAT PASSED THROUGH OUR NORTHEAST BREAKS DOWN ON SUNDAY, WITH
THE REMAINING ENERGY BEING SITUATED OVER OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
WITH THIS ENERGY NEAR, MOISTURE WILL ALSO POOL OVER THE AREA. FROM
THERE, THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL CUTOFF
FROM THE FLOW, WITH THE ENERGY GYRATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO OUR SERVICE AREA WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. THUS, WE WILL SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUN THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A MOSTLY QUIET START TO THE WEEK,
AS WE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TRANSITION PERIOD BETWEEN THE
WEEKEND WAVE AND THE UPCOMING ONE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AROUND 60, WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO
INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
THUS, OPTED TO JUST STICK WITH NBM OUTPUT FOR NOW.
THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE QUITE THE
MESSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE LEADING FACTOR TO THIS IS THE STRONG
UPPER RIDGE THAT BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION, EXTENDING
WELL INTO CANADA. GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS UPPER HIGH REMAINING NEAR
STATIONARY, RESULTING IN A BIT OF A BLOCKING PATTERN TO START THE
WEEK. WITH THAT IN PLACE, WE HAVE A DEVELOPING/DEEPENING WAVE OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHICH WILL TREK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE FEATURE TO WATCH, AS IT WILL
LARGELY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GLOBAL MODELS AND SOME ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVOR THIS WAVE
DEEPENING ON ITS APPROACH TO THE REGION, THEN CUTTING OFF OVERHEAD.
BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE IN PLACE
MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY. THUS, OUR BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THAT TIMEFRAME. AS OF NOW, WE ARE LARGELY
LOOKING AT LIGHT-MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN AS THIS LOW SLOWLY PASSES
THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES SEEM TO BE MINIMAL, WITH NO SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. RATHER, WE MAY SEE A MUCH NEEDED SOAKING RAIN
FOR SOME OF THE AREA, WITH NBM AND WPC KEEPING AMOUNTS <0.25-0.50"
AT THIS TIME.
GUIDANCE DOESN'T KEEP THE LOW AROUND TOO LONG, WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THUS,
WEDNESDAY SHOULD LARGELY FEATURE A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AND A MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN.
ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY, BUT
WITH LITTLE/NO MOISTURE RETURN, WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A DRY
FROPA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WE WILL
LARGELY SEE A BROKEN-OVERCAST DECK THROUGH THE DAY, WITH CIGS
BETWEEN 5000-8000 FT. OTHERWISE, WE WILL SEE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING, GENERALLY STAYING AROUND 10-15
KTS. NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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