329
FXUS63 KDVN 252310
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
610 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS WORK WEEK.
- RAIN / PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
A COOL FALL DAY IS TAKING PLACE TODAY, AS WEAK WAA TAKES PLACE
ALOFT, WHILE AT THE SURFACE, UNDER THE THICK CLOUD COVER, WE'RE
SEEING EAST WINDS, SPOTTY SHOWERS, AND TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE
STRUGGLED TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
LOWER 50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME THIN SPOTS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CLEARING LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT, OR EVEN SUNDAY MID DAY. THUS FAR, WE HAVE NOT SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN ANY OBSERVATION SITE.
TONIGHT, UNDER THE CLOUD COVER, I'VE WARMED UP TEMPERATURES SOME
COMPARED TO EARLIER FORECAST, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO
UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING, AS THE WEAK WAA CONTINUES,
BUT THIS FORCING IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THIS MORNING, SO ACTIVITY MAY
BE ZERO. LOOKING AT SUNDAY, CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OUT FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY, AND WITH A MILDER AIR MASS OVER
THE REGION, HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S CONTINUE TO LOOK ON TRACK.
CERTAINLY, IF CLOUDS HOLD ON LONGER, THIS COULD BE TOO MILD, BUT
WILL HOLD THIS NEAR THE CENTER OF GUIDANCE AND FORECAST A PLEASANT
FALL DAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WE'RE EXPECTING A SIMILAR PATTERN TO SET
UP TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE, THOUGH IT WILL INITIALLY HAVE LESS
CLOUD COVER. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR PLEASANT FALL WEATHER
PRIOR TO A COMPLICATED UPPER TROF PASSAGE THIS WEEK AHEAD. EAST
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN SET UP, AS LOWS FALL TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S SUNDAY NIGHT, AND HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S MONDAY.
THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE QUITE THE
MESSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE LEADING FACTOR TO THIS IS THE STRONG
UPPER RIDGE THAT BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION, EXTENDING
WELL INTO CANADA. GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS UPPER HIGH REMAINING NEAR
STATIONARY, RESULTING IN A BIT OF A BLOCKING PATTERN TO START THE
WEEK. WITH THAT IN PLACE, WE HAVE A DEVELOPING/DEEPENING WAVE OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHICH WILL TREK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE FEATURE TO WATCH, AS IT WILL
LARGELY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GLOBAL MODELS AND SOME ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVOR THIS WAVE
DEEPENING ON ITS APPROACH TO THE REGION, THEN CUTTING OFF OVERHEAD.
BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE IN PLACE
MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY. THUS, OUR BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THAT TIMEFRAME. AS OF NOW, WE ARE LARGELY
LOOKING AT LIGHT-MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN AS THIS LOW SLOWLY PASSES
THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES SEEM TO BE MINIMAL, WITH NO SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. RATHER, WE MAY SEE A MUCH NEEDED SOAKING RAIN
FOR SOME OF THE AREA, WITH NBM AND WPC KEEPING AMOUNTS <0.25-0.50"
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
WEAK LIFT FROM A SYSTEM MOVING FROM MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS WILL KEEP 20-40% COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH 03Z/26. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHRA. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN/GUNKEL
AVIATION...08
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