098
FXUS63 KDVN 270009
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
709 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
- A STRONG LATE OCTOBER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES OF RAIN
TO THE AREA. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR
SOUTHEAST IOWA, WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEAST
MISSOURI. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
EASTERN IOWA, NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI
REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE OF A REX BLOCK WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH AND A CLOSED 500 MB LOW TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE 12 UTC KDVN SOUNDING SHOWED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BELOW 700 MB WITH WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS HAS RESULTED IN GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON UP TO 25 MPH. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY
LATE TODAY BUT REMAINING NEAR 10 MPH TONIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR TO THE
MID 40S IN FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
THE AXIS OF THE REX BLOCK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
00 UTC TUESDAY AHEAD OF A JET STREAK AND SHORTWAVE THAT IS
EXPECTED DIG INTO THE PLAINS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
WILL HELP TO LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS DIGGING
SHORTWAVE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
A DIGGING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG JET STREAK ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE DEPARTING CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EASTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS JET STREAK WILL WORK AGAINST THE EXPANSION OF
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. HAVE HELD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL 12 UTC AND THEN
SLOWLY EXPAND THEM EASTWARD THROUGH 00 UTC WEDNESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SATURATION MAY NOT TAKE PLACE IN FAR
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS UNTIL AFTER 06 UTC ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
SHOWN IN SOME MODELS. THERE MAY BE A LARGE GRADIENT IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA S BY THE TIME THE RAIN EXITS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
THE CURRENT NBM FORECAST HAS A GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA, FAR
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHILE NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS IS SHOWING LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
THIS STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A COLD, WET, AND WINDY DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IF NOT TO
NEAR 40 MPH. AS A RESULT OF THE WINDS, APPARENT TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE NEAR 40 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, IN THE WAKE OF THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM,
MODELS SHOW A PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA
CURRENTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY POTENTIALLY INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS HAS POTENTIAL FOR
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE.
CURRENTLY, THE MODELS HAVE THIS TIMED IN FOR SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. DURING THIS
PERIOD, MODELS HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AS DEEP AND DRY E/SE
FLOW REMAINS ENTRENCHED. THAT BEING SAID, ONE THING TO MONITOR
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AM NEAR KDBQ,
AS THERE IS A SIGNAL IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE OF A RIBBON OF
HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (SURFACE DEW POINTS 40F+) LIKELY LAKE
ENHANCED ADVECTED WESTWARD FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. LATEST HREF
PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY <5SM (POCKETS OF 40-50%+) AND SOME
OF THE RECENT HI-RES VISIBILITY GUIDANCE FAVOR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS FOR THE BRUNT OF THIS FOG
POTENTIAL. AS A RESULT, I HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION AT KDBQ,
BUT WITH A FAVORABLE EASTERLY ADVECTIVE COMPONENT TO THE WIND
THIS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES.
OTHERWISE, A SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-80 BEFORE DECREASING A BIT ON MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY PULLS AWAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM EASTERLY (E/SE) THROUGHOUT AT AROUND 10 KT.
SOME SPORADIC HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY,
BUT EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE MORE COMMON BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE DEPICTING 6 HR MSLP CHANGE (18Z-00Z) OF 4 TO
5 MB (LOWER), AS LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE PLAINS AND
LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...COUSINS
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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