773
FXUS63 KDVN 131115
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
515 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
..UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- GENERALLY DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 15-20+
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- THE NEXT MAIN CHANCE FOR A MORE ORGANIZED AND MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
TRAVERSE THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NOTABLY
LIGHTER WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BACK FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY THEY
WILL INCREASE A BIT TO 10-20 MPH WITH MIXING AND ONSET OF LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. ADD IN THE AMPLE SUNSHINE (DECREASING HIGH
CLOUDINESS BY AFTERNOON) AND THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY NICE
FALL AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S, WHICH IS ROUGHLY 8-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TONIGHT, STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTED RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO SKIES BECOMING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY. A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO BEGIN LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER
30S NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT (NEAR/NORTH OF I-80) AND IN THE 40S
TO THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AM, WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET AND CONTINUING
TO BE DOMINATED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD
WITH 925 HPA TEMPS PROGGED AT 14-17C, WHICH IS ABOVE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR ALL DVN RAOBS ON NOVEMBER 14 PER SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY AND NEAR THE DAILY MAX. THIS SUPPORTS ANOMALOUS
WARMTH WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S, POTENTIALLY NEAR RECORD
(WITHIN 3-5+ DEGREES) HIGHS FOR SOME WITH RECORD HIGHS IN THE
RANGE OF 70-75F ACROSS THE MAIN CLIMATE SITES (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW). FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE MILD WITH THE
REGION FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITHIN A WELL-MIXED WARM SECTOR AND LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
LOOK TO ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S FOR MOST, WHICH IS CLOSE TO
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE DATE!
SATURDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COOL HIGHS A BIT WITH AN EARLIER
COLD FRONT PASSAGE PRIOR TO MIDDAY. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A FEW SPRINKLES OR BRIEF VERY LIGHT SHOWER PARTICULARLY NORTH
OF I-80 POST-FRONTAL, BUT OVERALL LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS AND THE BRUNT OF FORCING PASSING TO OUR NORTH
FROM MN INTO WI WILL WORK TOWARD LIMITING ANY PRECIP CHANCES IN
OUR REGION. DEEP MIXING WILL LEAD TO BREEZY W/NW WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 MPH AND HIGHS REBOUNDING MAINLY INTO THE 60S, WITH SOME
LOWER 70S POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH/EAST BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP
THROUGH THE 50S LATE DAY IN THE STRENGTHENING CAA. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A COOLER, BUT FAIRLY SEASONABLE DAY ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, AS A SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND PLOWS THROUGH A RIDGE AXIS IN THE PLAINS. STILL
SOME PRETTY LARGE SPREAD WITH STRENGTH/TRACK OF SYSTEM, BUT
MANY LREF MEMBERS BRING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE LREF ENSEMBLE 24 HR PROBABILITY OF >.01 PRECIPITATION AT
50-60% ENDING 12Z TUESDAY. SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS DEPICTING A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, WHICH WILL BEAR SOME MONITORING.
HEADING INTO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
QUITE HIGH AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT
IN THE MID RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. 12Z WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS
DEPICTS TWO POTENTIAL SCENARIOS, WITH ONE BEING A MORE ZONAL TO
W/NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND THE OTHER A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THE LATTER SCENARIO HAS SUPPORT FROM EPS MEAN AND WOULD
BE NOTABLY WARMER, AND POTENTIALLY WETTER WITH CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. MEANWHILE, THE ZONAL TO W/NW FLOW HAS SUPPORT FROM
GEFS AND CMCE MEANS AND WOULD BE MUCH COOLER AND BRING A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE ENERGY OPENING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
AND SNOW. SUFFICE TO SAY THIS HAS BIG IMPLICATIONS TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL, AS INDICATED BY THE DIFFERENCES IN
NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGES (25-75TH) FOR HIGHS WHICH ARE QUITE
SIZABLE AT 15-20+ DEGREES FOR TUESDAY AND 10-15 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY. DETERMINISTIC NBM IS AROUND CLIMO DURING THIS TIME
AND SEEMINGLY REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.
NEEDLESS TO SAY, BE PREPARED FOR SOME VOLATILITY AND CHANGES IN
THE COMING DAYS TO THE FORECAST HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STAY
TUNED!
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE
WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY SOME STRATUS POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT PARTICULARLY
NEAR KCID AND KBRL. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) FOR MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES IN FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS IN THE
VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT TOWARD 12Z OR EVEN JUST BEYOND.
HOWEVER, THE BETTER SIGNAL/ HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR THESE LOWER
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL IOWA. LIGHT WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND
8-15KT, THEN BACK TOWARD E/SE BELOW 10 KT TONIGHT WITH SOME
VEERING BACK TO S/SW AT KCID AND KBRL IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WARM FRONT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
NOVEMBER 14:
BURLINGTON: 75/1964
CEDAR RAPIDS: 75/1964
DUBUQUE: 70/1971
MOLINE: 75/1971
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...MCCLURE
CLIMATE...MCCLURE
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