107
FXUS63 KDVN 132317
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
517 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
ORGANIZED AND MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WERE SEEN TODAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING NICELY INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S BY
1PM FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING
KEPT NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL A LITTLE COOLER TODAY SLOWING
ITS WARMUP. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN IL WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS SURFACE
HIGH SLIDES EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN IA OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS - ONLY DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. IN ADDITION, THE LATEST RAP13 17Z RUN
SUGGEST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MO AND MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST IA AND WEST CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT, KEEPING
TEMPS WARMER.
FRIDAY...CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO WHAT WE SEE IN LATE SEPTEMBER IS FORECAST!
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA CHARACTERIZED BY ANOMALOUS 850MB TEMPS RISING
TO 15-16C (WHICH IS NEAR THE DAILY MAX FOR NOV 14TH PER SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY) WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. IF WE MIX JUST A LITTLE DEEPER THAN FORECAST, THAN
WE MAY BE EVEN WARMER TOMORROW, LIKE WHAT THE RAW GFS AND CMC
MODELS SHOW. OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE NOV 14TH (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
ANOTHER INTERESTING NOTE IS THAT IF OUR 00Z SOUNDING TOMORROW
EVENING RECORDS A 15.3C 850MB TEMP OR WARMER, IT WILL BE A TOP
20 WARMEST SOUNDINGS FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER AT THAT LEVEL.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH CONTINUED WAA IN THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST, WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE DATE!
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
SATURDAY...AFTER A MILD START, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
IN THE MORNING WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS QUITE THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER, WITH BETTER
FORCING AND MOISTURE DISPLACED TO OUR NORTHEAST IN WISCONSIN.
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND WINDS BEHIND THE FROPA. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE DELAYED
MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT, WHICH WILL
ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOW 70S BEFORE TEMPS
BEGIN TO DROP LATER IN THE DAY IN THE STRONGER CAA. BREEZY W/NW
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH WILL ALSO BE SEEN IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE
MIDWEST BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE 30S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, AS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TRACKS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH 850MB THETA-E PROGS KEEPING
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS MO AND SOUTHERN IL. STILL, SOME RAIN
IS EXPECTED WITH THE LREF ENSEMBLE 24 HR PROBABILITY OF >.01
PRECIPITATION NOW AT 70-90% ENDING 12Z TUESDAY. SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS DEPICTING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE INDICATE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, WHICH WILL BEAR
SOME MONITORING.
HEADING INTO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
QUITE HIGH AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE
MID RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
A WEST COAST TROUGH. 00Z WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS DEPICTS THREE
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS, WITH ONE BEING A MORE ZONAL TO W/NW FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND THE OTHER TWO PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW.
THE LATTER TWO SCENARIOS HAVE THE MOST EPS MEMBERS AND WOULD BE
NOTABLY WARMER, AND POTENTIALLY WETTER WITH CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. MEANWHILE, THE ZONAL TO W/NW FLOW HAS SUPPORT FROM
MORE OF THE GEFS AND CMCE MEMBERS AND WOULD BE MUCH COOLER AND
BRING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE ENERGY OPENING UP THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW. SUFFICE TO SAY THIS HAS BIG
IMPLICATIONS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL, AS INDICATED
BY THE DIFFERENCES IN NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGES (25-75TH) FOR
HIGHS WHICH ARE QUITE SIZABLE AT 12-17+ DEGREES FOR TUESDAY AND
9-15 DEGREES WEDNESDAY. DETERMINISTIC NBM IS AROUND CLIMO
DURING THIS TIME AND SEEMINGLY REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY. NEEDLESS TO SAY, BE PREPARED FOR SOME VOLATILITY
AND CHANGES IN THE COMING DAYS TO THE FORECAST HEADING THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN SKC AREA-WIDE. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INITIALLY WILL
SLOWLY TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT, HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE/DEW POINT TEMPERATURES. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN ANY MVFR FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS AT CID/DBQ/BRL OVERNIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH-RES AND NBM
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN AROUND 10-20%,
SO WE WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THIS TAF SET DUE TO CHANCES
BEING SO LOW. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AROUND 10 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
NOVEMBER 14:
BURLINGTON: 75 / 1964
CEDAR RAPIDS: 75 / 1964
DUBUQUE: 70 / 1971
MOLINE: 75 / 1971
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...GROSS/MCCLURE
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
CLIMATE...GROSS
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