857
FXUS63 KDVN 152327
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
527 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
..00Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A VERY WARM AND BREEZY MID NOVEMBER DAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 30S TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK, WITH PASSING STORM
SYSTEMS AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 115 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER WARM NOVEMBER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S, DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND GUSTY NW WINDS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH. COLDER, MORE SEASONABLE AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (NORTH TO SOUTH); HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL LEAD TO MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND NW WINDS
WILL HOLD BETWEEN 10-20 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP
BACK INTO THE 30S AND 20S SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A PROLONGED OVER-
RUNNING EVENT IS FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST, WITH
MODELS TRENDING FURTHER NORTH ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE STEADIEST
PRECIPITATION. LOCALLY, WE CAN EXPECT COOL, CLOUDY AND AT TIMES
DAMP CONDITIONS TO START THE WORKWEEK. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS TO BE A RAIN EVENT FOR OUR OUTLOOK AREA,
WITH NO WINTER HAZARDS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN
TO TAKE SHAPE, WITH SEVERAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE EVOLUTION AND
SPEED OF A LONGWAVE TROF MOVING EAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES. REGARDLESS
OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES, A STRONG DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, LARGE
TEMPERATURE SWINGS, AND STRONG WINDS TO THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM
COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY
FOR THE LOCAL AREA. THE NBM IS AROUND CLIMATOLOGY FOR
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD AND HAVE LEFT VALUES ALONE GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. THE LATEST LONG RANGE FORECAST
ENSEMBLE HAS 30-50%+ PROBABILITIES FOR 0.50"+ OF RAINFALL WITH
THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA, AND
HIGHER PROBABILITIES TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. FURTHER DETAILS WILL BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EDGING IT'S WAY ACRS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY, EXPECT A VFR TAF CYCLE
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE INCOMING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS GOING TONIGHT AT 10-15 KTS. MID TO
LATE SUNDAY MORNING, THE WINDS MAY SHOW SOME MIX OUT GUSTS OF
15-20 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT THEN START TO DECREASE AGAIN BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FAIR SKIES THROUGH THE STRETCH.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...12
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