987
FXUS63 KDVN 170519
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1119 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A CALM AND COOL NIGHT TONIGHT, AND APPROACHING SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM UP ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.
- AFTER A MIDWEEK LULL, AND ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE LATE
WEEK AHEAD, WITH A POTENTIAL LARGER SYSTEM BY WEEK'S END.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
TONIGHT...LARGE ELONGATED SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACRS THE MID
AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY THRU MONDAY MORNING, MAKING FOR A RATHER
CALM AND COOL NIGHT. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY STREAM DOWN
ACRS THE AREA ON RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF WESTERN GRT LKS UPPER JET,
POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE COOL DOWN POTENTIAL, BUT WITH SUCH DRY SFC
DPTS IN PLACE AMD WORRIED EVEN UNDERCUTTING THE NBM BY 2-4 DEGREES
MAY STILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. WILL ADVERTISE LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN
NW IL, TO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MONDAY NIGHT'S WEATHER
MAKER WAVE ACRS SOUTHWEST NV, BUT BEFORE THEN MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL WAA CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER THE WARM UP
POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE AND WILL GO WITH A RANGE OF
THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHEAST, TO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE FAR SOUTH.
MONDAY NIGHT...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER WAVE/LOW WILL LOOK TO ROLL
EAST-NORTHEAST AND UNDERCUT A PORTION OF THE RIDGE REX BLOCK STYLE,
WITH ENSEMBLE TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAVING IT REACH THE NE/IA MO RVR
VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. NICE LIFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY CONVERGENT PRE-WAVE
25-35 KT H85 MB FLOW WITH INCREASING THTA-E ALOFT WILL LOOK TO FUEL
SCTRD ELEVATED SHOWERS TO BLOSSOM ACRS THE AREA AS THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PROGRESS. VERTICAL THERMO AND KINEMATIC PROFILES IN THE
SHOWER BEARING LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH
CURRENTLY PROGGED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR LOCALLY...BETTER
OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. BUT THE STORM
BEARING SHEAR AND MUCAPES OF AT LEAST 200-400+ J/KG SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED WORDING CWA-WIDE MONDAY EVENING INTO 1 AM, LATER IN THE
SOUTHEAST. SIGNS OF A SECONDARY VORT WING AROUND THE LOW WITH A BIT
OF A DRY REAR INFLOW SLOT MAY HELP FOSTER SOMEWHAT STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF HAIL ACRS THE SOUTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAJORITY
OF THE MODELS AND BLENDS HAVE RAMPED UP THE PWAT FEED UP ACRS THE
AREA TO 0.80 TO 0.90+ INCHES FOR MONDAY NIGHT, AND THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR WIDESPREAD 0.10 TO 0.40 OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL BY MID TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED SWATHS OF 0.50 TO 0.75 OF AN INCH
IN AREAS THAT MANAGE TO GET RUN ACRS BY A COUPLE ROUNDS OR CELLS OF
STORMS. BUT ALSO HAVE TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER TO
OVERCOME UNDER THE PRIME MOISTURE FEED TO EAT AWAY AT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SOME UNTIL BETTER VERTICAL SATURATION OCCURS.
A FINAL PARAMETER TO CONSIDER IS THE POTENTIAL OF DYNAMIC AND EVAPO-
COOLING TO MAKE FOR WINTRY MIX PROFILES FOR RAIN/SLEET/SNOW NORTH OF
THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. AGAIN
THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS LAY THIS POTENTIAL OUT JUST
NORTH OF THE DVN CWA, BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
MODEL RUNS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE NOT THE NICEST OF DAYS
WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS SFC
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH, TO THE LOW 50S SOUTH. IF SFC
WINDS CAN DECREASE AND CONVERGE, THERE MAY BE SOME FOG ISSUES IN
SOME AREAS LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WEDNESDAY A LULL
DAY AS BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING TAKE HOLD TO THE LEE OF THE NEXT
STRONGLY DIGGING LONGER WAVE UPPER TROF ACRS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.
TEMPS MAY WARM ABOVE NORMAL IF WE GET ENOUGH INSOLATION.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND... ASSESSING THE LATEST DETERMINISTICS AND
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE BLENDS, IT'S STILL A MURKY PICTURE OUT THERE WITH
RESPECTS TO HANDLING AND PHASING OF THE MAIN UPSTREAM TROF AND/OR
EJECTING PIECES OF UPPER WAVE ENERGY OUT OF THAT SYNOPTIC FEATURE.
THEY RANGE FROM THE LOCAL AREA GETTING HEAVY PRECIP THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, TO GETTING SHUNTED MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. WILL
HAVE TO COVER THIS PERIOD WITH GENERAL POPS FOR NOW, AND MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HANDLING OF TOMORROWS SYSTEM AND AN EVENTUAL COMPLICATED
BLOCKING PATTERN THAT MAY SET UP ACRS MUCH OF THE CONUS BY LATE
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
MID CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST WINDS AND GOOD
VISIBILITY. THIS CONDITION WILL CONTINUE MOST ALL OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL, BEFORE A WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCE MOVES IN FOR
MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS RAINFALL APPEARS MAINLY LIGHT
AND SHOWERY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING DESPITE
SOME RAIN FALLING.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN
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