741
FXUS63 KDVN 180853
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
253 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISHING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHERWISE, COOL AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO PART OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY/FRIDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. IF WE DO SEE
PRECIPITATION MOVE IN, IT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
- A QUIET WEEKEND UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD US INTO ANOTHER
SPLIT FLOW REGIME NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
POTENT UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRAVERSES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY,
WHICH HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH COVERAGE
DECREASING BY MID-MORNING. MUCH/ALL OF THE AREA SHOULD BE VOID
OF PRECIPITATION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, LEAVING US WITH CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGHOUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH A BLANKET OF
CLOUDS OVERHEAD TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY MODERATE.
ALTHOUGH, WE WILL SEE QUITE THE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES, WITH
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 REMAINING IN THE LOW-MID 40S AND
THOSE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. THUS, WE ARE
IN FOR A LARGELY COOL AND DAMP DAY, AS WELL AS LOOKING QUITE
GLOOMY.
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO GO LIGHT THROUGH THE
NIGHT, WITH AN OVERCAST DECK OF CLOUDS REMAINING. THUS, WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOO MUCH TONIGHT, GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE MID-UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO NEAR 40 IN OUR SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A QUIET DAY, AS IT WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD
FROM ONE STORM SYSTEM TO THE NEXT. THUS, HIGH PRESSURE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY, KEEPING US DRY
THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH, LLVL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AS WEAK RIDGING PUSHES EAST. THUS, WE WILL SEE MOISTURE ALOFT
REMAIN IN THE AREA AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THAT TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. THUS, WE ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY REMAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SEE TODAY, BUT OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. WITH ALL THAT SAID, WEDNESDAY WILL YET AGAIN BE
ANOTHER GLOOMY DAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
AS WAS DISCUSSED IN THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE, THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WILL FEATURES A SPLIT FLOW REGIME. WE WILL SEE QUITE A DEEP
WAVE DEVELOP/DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THEN
EJECT OFF AND TRY TO TREK NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATEST
RUNS OF GLOBAL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE FLOW SPLIT
AND NOT ALLOWING THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAMS TO PHASE. ALONG WITH
THIS, WE CONTINUE TO SEE THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIG DOWN AND
SHUNT THE NORTHERLY PROGRESSION OF THE POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE,
KEEPING FLOW NEAR ZONAL OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
PATTERN BRINGS ALONG QUITE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WHEN IT COMES TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS WOULD LARGELY FAVOR MUCH OF OUR AREA
REMAINING DRY, AS WE WON'T BE ABLE TO GET MUCH OF THAT SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY FAR INTO OUR AREA. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME WORKING
INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WHICH COULD BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SOME, BUT LARGELY TO THOSE IN OUR SOUTH. FROM THE LOOKS OF IT, IT
SHOULD BE LIGHT PRECIPITATION, IF IT MAKES IT. THE NBM DOES SEEM TO
BE PICKING UP ON THE DRYER TREND, KEEPING THE BETTER POPS
ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT DOES
INTRODUCE POPS THURSDAY IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST, BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IN
SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW. OUR BETTER CONFIDENCE, ALBEIT LOW,
REMAINS ON FRIDAY WHEN WE MAY SEE THOSE BOUTS OF ENERGY WORK INTO
OUR SOUTH. THUS, BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY,
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WPC INDICATES THAT ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT, SHOWING <0.25-0.50".
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THIS MESSY PATTERN WILL COME TO A CLOSE AS
THE NORTHERN JET STREAM TAKES OVER AND PUSHES THE DECAYING WAVE OUT
OF THE MIDWEST. THUS, WE WILL BE LEFT UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW
50S, TRENDING WARMER ON SUNDAY DUE TO WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW MUCH WARMER SUNDAY WILL BE, BUT WE
ARE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN. AS WE ARE IN THIS TRANSITIONAL/QUIET PATTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND, WE DO SEE ANOTHER DEEP WAVE DEVELOP AND CUTOFF OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS MAY BE OUR NEXT WEATHER-MAKER, BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IN
THIS REMAINS LOW. THE GFS SUITE BRINGS THIS UPPER WAVE INTO THE
MIDWEST, WHICH WOULD SUGGEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS IS
WHAT GUIDANCE WAS INITIALLY SHOWING FOR OUR LATE-WEEK SYSTEM. THUS,
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL THAT THIS CAN GET SHUNTED AGAIN BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM, LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES(SUPPORTED BY THE
EURO/CMC). IN EITHER CASE, THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL US NEXT WEEK AND IT IS ALL MATTER OF IF WE CAN GET THESE
WAVES/MOISTURE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING PRECIPITATION IN. GUIDANCE
DOESN'T HAVE A GOOD GRASP ON THIS. THUS, WILL STICK WITH THE NBM
OUTPUT, WHICH INTRODUCES SLIGHT-CHANCE POPS TO THE AREA
MONDAY/TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
AND THROUGH TUESDAY. BETWEEN 06-12Z, WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON OVERALL
COVERAGE AND TIMING. THUS, OPTED TO PUT UNDER PROB30 GROUPS FOR
THE TIME BEING, RATHER THAN PREVAILING. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE
HAS MOVED OUT OF MUCH OF THE AREA, ASIDE FROM DBQ, WHERE WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. IN THESE SHOWERS, WE CAN SEE CIGS
LARGELY BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT, WITH VIS BETWEEN 3-5 SM.
OTHERWISE, BETWEEN 09-12Z WE WILL SEE CIGS LOWER THROUGHOUT, AS
THE SYSTEMS GETS CLOSER TO THE COVERAGE AREA. THUS, WE CAN SEE
CIGS AS LOW AS 800-1000 FT AT CID/DBQ AND AS LOW AS 1000-2000 FT
AT MLI/BRL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z,
WITH BEST CHANCES FOR IMPROVEMENTS BEING SEEN AT MLI AND BRL.
ALTHOUGH, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE TIMING OF LOW CIGS
MOVING OUT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, GUSTING
UPWARDS TO 20-25 KTS AT TIMES. AFTER 12Z, WE WILL SEE WINDS
START TO DECREASE AND SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW. OVERALL, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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