576
FXUS63 KDVN 190853
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
253 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOCKED IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY,
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING CONDITIONS QUITE DREARY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO PART OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY/FRIDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. IF WE DO SEE
PRECIPITATION MOVE IN, IT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND LARGELY IN
OUR SOUTH.
- A QUIET WEEKEND UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD US INTO ANOTHER
SPLIT FLOW REGIME NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET AND DREARY DAY, AS WE REMAIN SOCKED
IN LOW STRATUS ALL DAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS PUSHING INTO THE
MIDWEST, AS A WAVE DEEPENS OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TRAVERSING OVERHEAD AND LLVL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CLOUDS TO REMAIN
TRAPPED OVERHEAD. THUS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A WARMUP
TODAY, WHERE WE OPTED TO KNOCK BACK HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT.
LACK OF SURFACE HEATING WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE LOW-
MID 40S, WITH THOSE IN OUR FAR SOUTH SEEING THE BEST CHANCE TO
APPROACH 50. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL HELP KEEP THE WINDS
LIGHT AS WELL. SO, A CALM AND DREARY DAY IS IN STORE FOR US
TODAY. EARLY ON, WE MAY SEE SOME DRIZZLE/MIST DUE TO SATURATED
LLVLS, BUT THIS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS WE SEE THE
CLOUD HEIGHTS INCREASE A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, MUCH OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN, PREVENTING
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TOO MUCH AGAIN. SOME GUIDANCE WANTS
TO HINT AT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLES WORKING IN FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 34, AS BOUTS OF ENERGY MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW. THUS, OPTED TO
REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURES A SPLIT FLOW REGIME. WE WILL
SEE QUITE A DEEP WAVE DEVELOP/DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES GOING INTO
THURSDAY, THEN EJECT OFF AND TRY TO TREK NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY.
PRIOR TO THAT, WE WILL SEE A WEAK WAVE PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN JET
STREAM ON THURSDAY, WHICH HAS INTRODUCED POPS ON THURSDAY FOR OUR
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE AREA. AFTER DIVING INTO MODEL SOUNDINGS, IT
WOULD SEEM THAT WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO DRY TO SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION. THUS, HAVE OPTED TO CUT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
LEAVING SOME IN OUR FAR SOUTH (<20%), WHERE WE WILL START TO SEE
SOME LLVL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH, CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST IN US STAYING DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN, HEADING INTO
FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER WAVE EJECTS OFF OF THE ROCKIES,
STARTING ITS TREK NORTHEAST. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGES, WE EXPECT THE NORTHERN JET STREAM TO SHUNT THE
NORTHERLY PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE, LIMITING THE NORTHERLY EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GFS SUITE CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE, ALLOWING THE WAVE TO PUSH FARTHER NORTH, BRINGING
PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THE
REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS SHUNTED SOUTH, KEEPING BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG OR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. THUS, WE HAVE
QUITE THE DIFFERENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE BOARD. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO LARGELY STICK WITH NBM POPS (WITH SLIGHT SOUTHERLY
ADJUSTMENT), INTRODUCING SLIGHT-CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR, BUT HAVING THE HIGHEST POPS SOUTH. OVERALL,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW, WITH GUIDANCE FAVORING <0.25".
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THIS MESSY PATTERN WILL COME TO A CLOSE AS
THE NORTHERN JET STREAM TAKES OVER AND PUSHES THE DECAYING WAVE OUT
OF THE MIDWEST. THUS, WE WILL BE LEFT UNDER UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH, WE WILL
SEE SOME LLVL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL, AS
WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW PASS THROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. CURRENTLY,
WE ARE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ON SATURDAY, TRENDING
WARMER ON SUNDAY DUE TO WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THESE HAVE
TRENDED UPWARDS OVER THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE. AS WE ARE IN THIS
TRANSITIONAL/QUIET PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND, WE DO SEE ANOTHER DEEP
WAVE DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS MAY BE OUR NEXT WEATHER-MAKER,
BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW. GUIDANCE HAS SINCE TRENDED
TOWARDS THE DRYER SIDE OF THINGS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK,
INDICATING THAT THE WAVE REMAINS SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE
MOST PART. ALTHOUGH, ONCE AGAIN IT WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
AREA THAT LOW END POPS ARE NECESSARY FOR THE TIME BEING. OPTED TO
HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT POPS THAT THE NBM OUTPUT INDICATED. THIS
WOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE SIMILAR TO THE WEEKEND, BUT A
LITTLE COOLER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THUS, WE ARE
LOOKING TO START THE WEEK IN THE MID 50S, AND THEN TRENDING A
LITTLE COOLER AS WE CONTINUE FURTHER INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
DECK OF LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY, MOST LOCATIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CIGS <1000 FT. DURING THIS TIME, WE WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE SPORADIC DRIZZLES AND MIST, KEEPING VIS
NEAR 6 SM, BUT HAVE SEEN BETWEEN 4-6 SM AT TIMES. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR FURTHER REDUCTIONS. AFTER 18Z, WE MAY START TO
SEE CIGS LIFT FOR AT LEAST BRL/MLI, GENERALLY INCREASING TO
ABOUT 1000-1500 FT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT, SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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