999
FXUS63 KDVN 220522
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1122 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK
AHEAD.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS IN THE 20S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL LATE
INTO MONDAY AM WITH MAJORITY OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HOLDING NORTH OF THE AREA; FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER, WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MEASURABLE PRECIP
LOCALLY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH TO MID/UPPER 40S IN
THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TO BE LARGELY QUIET AND
UNSEASONABLY MILD. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS, WITH US SITUATED ALONG THE TOP OF IT. THIS WILL KEEP US UNDER
LARGELY ZONAL FLOW, WITH LITTLE/NO MOVEMENT IN THE RIDGE AXIS
THROUGH MIDWEEK, KEEPING THE WEATHER RELATIVELY SIMILAR FROM DAY TO
DAY. A DEEP WAVE WILL ALSO REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WEAK
BOUTS OF ENERGY OVER THE ROCKIES AND TRACK ALONG THE RIDGE. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA,
BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW, WITH MAIN CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ALTHOUGH, POPS LARGELY
REMAIN <30% ON WEDNESDAY. MOST GLOBAL MODELS FAVOR THE CHANCE
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE AND HAS BEEN TRENDING
EAST. OTHERWISE, WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. RATHER, WITH EACH
PASSING WAVE, WE WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THEM, INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER (AND POSSIBLY FOG
AT TIMES). TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE DAILY THROUGH
MIDWEEK, BRINGING US WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. WE WILL START
THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT, TRENDING
TOWARDS WIDESPREAD UPPER 40S TO 50S ON WEDNESDAY. OUR SOUTH WILL
EVEN SEE THE CHANCE FOR 60S ON CHRISTMAS DAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BELOW THE NBM DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION. THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS MOST AGGRESSIVE ON THE MAX
TEMPS WITH THE EC/CMC ENSEMBLES SHOWING A "COOLER" SCENARIO.
AFTER THURSDAY, GUIDANCE WOULD FAVOR THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WAVE
SITTING OVER THE WEST, ALLOWING OUR RIDGE OVERHEAD TO FLATTEN A BIT.
ALTHOUGH, ENSEMBLES WOULD FAVOR THE CONTINUATION OF ZONAL FLOW. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER PATTERN, WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. ALTHOUGH, WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD
BEING SUPPRESSED, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TREND DOWN A LITTLE
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATE WEEK AND
THE WEEKEND SEEM LOW AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
A BRIEF BOUT OF MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO SOME TERMINALS AROUND 18Z.
OTHERWISE, MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LLWS TONIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 40 KTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10
KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...GUNKEL/UTTECH
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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