945
FXUS63 KDVN 230210
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
810 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
- THERE ARE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
- A PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 810 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS OF 8 PM THIS EVENING, THE LATEST GOES-EAST NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK
THAT WAS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION EARLIER TODAY IS CLEARING OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN. WHILE WE CAN STILL SEE SOME HIGHER
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD, CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
TEMPERATURES COOLING QUICKER WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD AND ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING, SO WE HAVE LOWERED
TONIGHT'S LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE FOR THIS.
TONIGHT'S LOWS LOOK TO NOW DIP TO THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME ISOLATED AREAS COULD FALL TO RIGHT AROUND 30 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS TONIGHT TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE NW. MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
FAVORED NORTH OF I-80 (20-50%). TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
WE REMAIN ON TRACK FOR A MOSTLY QUIET AND UNSEASONABLY MILD STRETCH
OF WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH US SITUATED ALONG THE TOP OF IT.
THIS WILL KEEP US UNDER LARGELY ZONAL FLOW, WITH LITTLE/NO MOVEMENT
IN THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH MIDWEEK, KEEPING THE WEATHER RELATIVELY
SIMILAR FROM DAY TO DAY. DEEP WAVE WILL ALSO REMAIN SITUATED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
WEAK BOUTS OF ENERGY OVER THE ROCKIES AND TRACK ALONG THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA,
BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW, WITH MAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DAY, LARGELY IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. OVERALL, ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE <0.10" FOR
ANYONE THAT SEES RAIN. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
PERIODS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE DAILY THROUGH MIDWEEK,
BRINGING US WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS DAY, THE NBM AND GFS ENSEMBLE HAVE NOW TRENDED COLDER
TOWARD THE EC ENSEMBLE. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
OUTLOOK AREA. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TO COME THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT, TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE
NE/E, THEREBY INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON THE COOLER (YET STILL
ABOVE NORMAL) SCENARIO THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
AFTER THURSDAY, GUIDANCE WOULD FAVOR THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WAVE
SITTING OVER THE WEST, ALLOWING OUR RIDGE OVERHEAD TO FLATTEN A BIT.
WITH THIS BREAKDOWN, STRONGER WAVES WILL NOW BE ABLE TO WORK THEIR
WAY FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AS DEEPER WAVES START TO
PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, WE WILL START TO SEE COOLER AIR WORK
INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT WITH MILD CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NBM HAS INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES (20-50%) FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PERIOD OF WAA ROLLS
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, THIS
LOOKS TO BE A LIGHT RAIN EVENT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE EAST. A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THAT
TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
MVFR STRATOCU DECK WILL LOOK TO SEEP EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND TRIED TO TIME THE CLEARING WITH
A BLEND OF SEVERAL CAMS. OF COURSE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOWED TO STALLED CLEARING TREND AFTER
SUNSET BUT HOPE THE LLVL SOUTHWESTERLIES CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR
EFFECT. OTHERWISE RATHER LIGHT SOUTH SFC WINDS WILL VEER MORE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH A PASSING WEAK
SFC FRONT. WILL BANK ON ANY CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY OCCURRING AT
VFR LEVELS, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY IF ANY OF
THE LOWER STUFF GETS TRAPPED ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT. POST-
FRONTAL RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
UPDATE...SCHULTZ
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...GUNKEL/UTTECH
AVIATION...12
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