805
FXUS63 KDVN 231105
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
505 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- WEDNESDAY WILL SEE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN/FOG POSSIBLE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHARPLY COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY &
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
TODAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD COVER, THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE
OPAQUE, AS ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT, OVER TOP OF BROAD UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS PATTERN ASSURES THAT COLD AIR DOES NOT
DIP TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER IN THE MIDWEST. ANYHOW,
TODAY IS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL DAYS WHERE WE'LL SEE CHALLENGING
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS, AS MODELS ARE GREATLY VARIED ON HOW STRONG AN
INVERSION REMAINS OVER THE AREA EACH DAY IN THIS OTHERWISE, VERY
MILD PATTERN ALOFT. AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE IS LITTLE IF
ANY STRATUS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WEST OF CHICAGO TO MILWAUKEE.
ANYHOW, IT APPEARS TO ME, THE MAIN REASON MODELS SUCH A THE NAM,
NAMNEST, AND OTHER CAMS HAVE OUR 2M TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE LOW
30S TODAY AND IN DAYS TO COME, IS THAT THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW
WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER IN THEIR DATA, WHEN THIS HAS BEEN THINNING TO
PATCHY AREAS FOR DAYS ALREADY. CONVERSELY, MODELS THAT DO NOT
HAVE SNOW COVER EXISTING, HAVE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AT LOW
LEVELS. ALOFT, ALL MODELS SHOW VERY MILD AIR, AND ANY MIXING
BEYOND 2 KFT WOULD RESULT IN 50S AND 60S FOR OUR AREA TODAY.
WE'RE NOT GOING TO GO THAT WARM, BUT SAFE TO SAY, THE BUST
POTENTIAL IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS FORECAST REMAINS HIGH. TODAY'S
HIGHS, WITH A NOD TOWARDS SOME OPAQUE HOURS OF HIGH CLOUDS, WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH, TO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S CENTRAL
AND SOUTH.
TONIGHT, THIN HIGH CLOUDS AND A LACK OF STRATUS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH MID 20S NORTH AND LOWER 30S
SOUTH EXPECTED. THE INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SET TO
ARRIVE AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CHALLENGING THROUGH
CHRISTMAS, AS DENSE CLOUD COVER AT LOWER LEVELS SHOULD ARRIVE BY MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY, AND CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS. THIS MEANS A
RATHER NARROW DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH WED, LOWS LOWER 30S NORTH TO LOWER
40S CENTRAL AND SOUTH FOR SANTA, THEN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S
NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH AGAIN CHRISTMAS DAY. A PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MAINLY
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. QPF WOULD BE VERY LOW, 0.03 OR LESS,
BUT WETTING SURFACES IS LIKELY IN THAT PERIOD. FOG WOULD BE
POSSIBLE, AND DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT IT'S A BIT
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PERSISTING IN THIS
PERIOD AS THE MEAN GUIDANCE HAS EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING
THROUGH THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
THE MILD PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONFIDENTLY LAST THROUGH SATURDAY,
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S
ON TRACK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO BE OVER
THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S
SHOULD BE BE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
A PROGRESSIVE, BUT RATHER STRONG SHOT OF COLD, POTENTIALLY ARCTIC
AIR IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT T
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LOWS IN THE
+ SINGLE DIGITS (WE'D BE WELL BELOW ZERO IF WE HAD SNOW COVER).
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S. THOUGH
POTENT, THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR IS ALREADY ON IT'S WAY OUT FOR
TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S AS THE UPPER
RIDGE ONCE AGAIN BEGINS TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD. THIS OUTER PERIOD
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, AS THE UPPER FLOW IS MORE NORTHWEST THAN
ZONAL. THIS PATTERN COULD BE CAPABLE OF MORE COLD AIR SHOTS IN THE
WEEK AHEAD, THROUGH SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW APPEAR UNLIKELY WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
OF IOWA/ILLINOIS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 501 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING PREVAILING
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THROUGH THE
DAY/EVENING, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHERLY. NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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