837
FXUS63 KDVN 232342 CCA
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
542 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
..UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- WEDNESDAY WILL SEE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING, WITH DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN/FOG DEVELOPING INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY. SOME FOG CHRISTMAS MORNING COULD BE DENSE.
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHARPLY COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY &
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
THE FIRST HALF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING TOMORROW. WEAK H5 RIDGING, WITH MANY RIPPLES
IN THE FLOW WILL HELP TO SLOWLY BRING THAT MOISTURE NORTH INTO
THE AREA. THESE INCREASING CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER. MAIN
IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TOMORROW AS A WARM ADVECTION WING
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOKING DOWNSTREAM AT OBS, THERE ARE ALREADY DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE PERIOD TOMORROW. WE WILL PROBABLY QUICKLY TURN
FOGGY AS THE SUN SETS TOMORROW. BEFORE THAT, GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WITH JUST ENOUGH FORCING
TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE TOMORROW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
OUR SOUTHWEST AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXPAND THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER AND AS SUCH
HAVE LOWERED HIGHS. THEY STILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, HOWEVER, NOT AS WARM AS WE THOUGHT LAST WEEK. BUT,
THE EVEN BETTER NEWS, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE STAY WARM ENOUGH
THAT NONE OF THE DRIZZLE BECOMES FREEZING DRIZZLE. TOMORROW
NIGHT, WE MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AS
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO FREEZING. THAT SAID, WETBULB ZEROES
LOOK TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. SO, IF THIS CHANGES, THAT WOULD BE
THE ONLY AREA WE COULD HAVE SOME ICE ISSUES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
LOOKING TO CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING, WE LOOK TO BE
WELL ENTRENCHED IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH OVERALL WEAK
ASCENT. DRY AIR ABOVE H85 EXISTS AND WE LOOK TO BE IN A GOOD
SETUP FOR FOG, SOME DENSE. HAVE ADDED PATCHY AND AREAS OF FOG TO
THE FORECAST. LOOKING AT THE HREF, WHILE THE MEAN SUGGESTS NO
DENSE FOG, THE BOTTOM 50% OF ALL GUIDANCE HAS A BAND OF DENSE
FOG ACROSS THE AREA WHERE THE CURRENT AREA OF FOG IS LOCATED. AS
IS TYPICAL WITH FOG, A LOT HAS TO COME TOGETHER THAT WHICH IS
NOT FORECAST WELL BY THE MODELS. DO FEEL LIKE WE ARE TRENDING
MORE TOWARDS FOG WITH THIS CURRENT RUN OF THE MODELS.
THIS SOUP, THEN SETS THE STAGE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE AND WHILE CHRISTMAS
WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE, IT WILL BE A CLOUDY AND DREARY DAY FOR
THE AREA.
THE MILD PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONFIDENTLY LAST THROUGH SATURDAY,
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S
ON TRACK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO BE OVER
THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S
SHOULD BE BE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
A PROGRESSIVE, BUT RATHER STRONG SHOT OF COLD, POTENTIALLY ARCTIC
AIR IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT T
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LOWS IN THE
+ SINGLE DIGITS (WE'D BE WELL BELOW ZERO IF WE HAD SNOW COVER).
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S. THOUGH
POTENT, THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR IS ALREADY ON IT'S WAY OUT FOR
TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S AS THE UPPER
RIDGE ONCE AGAIN BEGINS TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD. THIS OUTER PERIOD
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, AS THE UPPER FLOW IS MORE NORTHWEST THAN
ZONAL. THIS PATTERN COULD BE CAPABLE OF MORE COLD AIR SHOTS IN THE
WEEK AHEAD, THROUGH SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW APPEAR UNLIKELY WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
OF IOWA/ILLINOIS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSIENT PERIOD OF FOG PRIMARILY THIS EVENING AT CID
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND BL COOLING TO BELOW THE DEW POINT THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. I'VE OPTED TO HIGHLIGHT A TEMPO MENTION OF
MVFR VISIBILITY AT CID THIS EVENING BEFORE THE THICKENING HIGH CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED SHALLOW NATURE OF THE FOG VISIBILITY
COULD FLUCTUATE CONSIDERABLY, SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON OBS.
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE ARE A COUPLE OF LOW SIGNALS FOR
LOWER CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE TERMINALS. THE FIRST IS NEAR DBQ
LATER THIS EVENING WITH SOME IFR STRATUS POTENTIALLY ADVECTING INTO NE IOWA
FROM MINNESOTA. MUCH OF THE SMALL CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THIS
POTENTIAL ARE VERIFYING TOO FAR EAST WITH THE STRATUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS AND WEAKENING/VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULT IN TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE
FOR ANY MENTION, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS FOR ANY
CHANGES. THE SECOND SIGNAL FOR A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF LOWER CONDITIONS IS
TOWARD 12Z THROUGH 15Z. DURING THIS TIME THERE IS A SMALL SIGNAL FOR SOME
IFR/MVFR STRATUS AND/OR FOG POTENTIAL AT MLI AND DBQ WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ON EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE LOW SIGNAL AND THEREFORE HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY I HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ANY MENTION AT THE DBQ AND MLI TAFS, BUT
THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO THE
NORTHWARD LIFTING AND EXPANSION OF MVFR STRATUS DURING THE DAY WITH A LOW
CHANCE (20-30%) FOR IFR AT BRL AND CID TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE STRATUS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI AND
WILL REMAIN THERE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO LIFT NORTHWARD
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, AS WINDS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER TURN FROM
THE S/SE. AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE
STRATUS ARRIVES WITH WEAK ASCENT ATOP THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THERE IS A CHANCE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THAT THE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN. VISIBILITIES OF IFR TO MVFR ARE
EXPECTED WITH ANY PRECIPITATION.
JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (WEDNESDAY EVENING) THERE IS A GROWING
CONSENSUS FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS INTO IFR/LIFR WITH AREAS OF VLIFR
POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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